In 2007, Ed Leamer presented “Housing is the business cycle” at Jackson Hole. In 2018, Leamer himself doesn’t think a recession is imminent, but the following graph certainly gives one pause for thought.
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On Recession: Hassett, Prediction Markets, and Markets
From NewsMax:
Council of Economic Advisers Kevin Hassett said he is willing to bet, based on the economy and indicators, that there will not be a recession any time soon, even though the markets have fluctuated a great deal this year.
“The U.S. economy is booming,” Hassett told Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.” “We got data on Friday that jacked up our growth estimate for the fourth quarter all the way above 3 percent. We’re rocketing along at 3 percent growth, and the markets haven’t reflected the good news.”
Meanwhile, Hassett said that he would “take that bet” that there is not a recession coming in the next year
Recreational Vehicle Sales as Recession Indicator
Some casual observers have noted the predictive power of recreational vehicle (RV) sales. Over the past six months of reported data, five have shown lower sales than corresponding months in 2017.
Perspective on the stock market
Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements. Here I offer a few thoughts.
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The 1990-91 Recession
The NBER BCDC memo and the data.
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14 Months, 8 Months, 16 Months
That’s the amount of time between 10 year-3 month yield curve inversions and the beginning of the subsequent NBER-dated recession (these are the three recessions in the Great Moderation period). This is shown in Figure 1.
Guest Contribution: “International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France), Ignacio Hernando (Banco de España) and Daniela Marconi (Banca d’Italia), summarizing the introductory chapter of their book International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of their respective institutions.
A decade after the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the world economy has finally returned to a more sustained pace of expansion (see Fig. 1).
Figure 1: World GDP annual growth (in %, constant prices). Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2018 and July 2018 update
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Recalling the Beginning of the Lost Decades
Lehman Brothers, the global financial crisis and ensuing great recession, plus ten.
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Econbrowser, on the Day Lehman Brothers Closed
Back to the Real Side of the Economy: Recession Watch (9/15/2008)
Only on a day like today does an over 1 percent decrease in industrial output move to third page. But this item (and this hilarious article h/t Economists View) reminded me to update the indicators used by the NBER BCDC are headed. Their trajectories are, in general, not too comforting.
Thinking about that Surge in Growth
Two points from the 2018Q2 2nd release: GDO is smoother, and a breakout has not yet appeared.