Trump: $4 ($5.6) trillion increase in cumulative deficit, minus tariff revenue increase. Harris: $1.7 trillion. On the tariff impact, you have to ask: “do you feel lucky?”
Category Archives: taxes
Musings on Economic Policies in a Trump Second Term
We don’t know much, but we know tax cuts and tariffs are on the agenda. I suppose that, while he might not execute the Fed Chair (that’s reserved for a select few), he is likely to try to otherwise eject him/her if policy is not to his liking.
Arthur Laffer in Wisconsin (Literally and Metaphorically)
CROWE and Young America’s Foundation are bringing Arthur Laffer to speak at UW Madison today (Grainger Hall, Plenary Room, 5:30-6:30 CT). The timing is fortuitous, as the state Senate is moving forward on passing AB386, which would exempt some portion of retiree income from taxes (up to 100K for single filers, 150K for married filing jointly), and drop the tax rate.
Donald Trump’s “eighth wonder of the world” shrinks from $10 billion to $674 million
Article from Reuters, “Foxconn mostly abandons $10 billion Wisconsin project touted by Trump”:
Under a deal with the state of Wisconsin announced on Tuesday, Foxconn will reduce its planned investment to $672 million from $10 billion and cut the number of new jobs to 1,454 from 13,000.
The Foxconn-Wisconsin deal was first announced to great fanfare at the White House in July 2017, with Trump boasting of it as an example of how his “America first” agenda could revive U.S. tech manufacturing.
My discussion in 2017, citing Legislative Fiscal Bureau assessment, here. Formal modeling of possible economic impacts from CROWE in 2017, and critical assessment by Mercatus of the package here.
And, all of us are wondering – where is Scott Walker?
When (US) Corporate Tax Rate Reductions Last Bloomed
Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, no enormous surge in capital investment appeared, above and beyond what could be explained by aggregate demand changes. From the conclusion to U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, by Emanuel Kopp, Daniel Leigh, Susanna Mursula, and Suchanan Tambunlertchai.
Infrastructure Investment and Taxes
I talked about infrastructure investment and taxes on WPR yesterday. Will higher corporate tax rates and closing of loopholes in the taxation of corporations raise prices of goods produced? Given what happened in the wake of the 2017 reduction in corporate tax rates (i.e., lots of stock buybacks, not much higher investment), I think a resulting price increase not likely. On the other hand, the infrastructure spending could have an impact on productivity and hence prices.
Guest Contribution: “Republicans oppose deficits only when Democrats hold the White House”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Guest Contribution: “Increasing Income Tax Progressivity: Trickle Up, Not Trickle Down Economics”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Christopher Otrok, Sam B. Cook Professor of Economics, University of Missouri, and Research Fellow, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. The views expressed here are our own and do not reflect the official opinions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.
Some Asset Market Reactions
Stock, currency and bond markets respond (up, up, yield up) on news of likely Democratic control of the Senate
Guest Contribution: “How Might Biden’s Anticipated Tax Changes Affect The Market?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Daniel Soques (University of North Carolina Wilmington). The views presented represent those of the authors alone and do not reflect the views of their respective institutions.