In order to judge the analytical abilities of an individual, it is sometimes useful to look back at their previous assessments. Consider this comment:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Interest Rate Paths for the Treasury Ten Year
As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.
Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere
Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…
Forecasting in Unprecedented Times
Consider the plight of a time series econometrician who wants to do a quick and dirty forecast for the next year, conditioned only on past information on GDP. One might end up with series in the graph below.
Lumber Prices
A wild ride for futures means…
Five Year Breakeven Inflation Expectations
After adjustment for premia, constant over the last three months:
A Logged Look at Bitcoin
If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.
Wisconsin Employment in April
Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 4.7% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02, vs. 5.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD yesterday).
More Nonsense
Interpreting the Labor Market
The employment surprise – demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday.