I moderated a discussion this morning with John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in which John shared his perspectives on monetary policy and the current economic outlook. You can watch on Youtube (conversation begins at 44 minutes in).
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Term Spreads and Economic Policy Uncertainty
In August, an elevated economic policy uncertainty index was associated with an increasingly inverted yield curve. The measured Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index as of today is 582 (sure to be revised, but still…).
Life Moves Fast: “Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?”
56% at noon Pacific today, according to PredictIt:
That is, articles of impeachment approved within the next three months.
Whistle-Blower Complaint: Audio, Text
“A Closer Look at Japan’s Rising Consumption Tax”
That’s an important new Economic Brief by Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond:
Japan plans to raise its national consumption tax next week from 8 percent to 10 percent. Some commentators and economists have blamed previous consumption tax increases for causing recessions in 1997 and 2014, but little statistical analysis has been published to support or refute such claims. This Economic Brief highlights new evidence that significant changes in Japan’s household consumption behavior did in fact coincide with the 1997 tax hike.
This issue is important as Japan is on the cusp of raising its consumption tax in just a few days.
An Event Study: Release of “Transcript” of Trump-Zelensky Call
Interesting to see how market prices (Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?) jumped, as of 8am Pacific today, as recorded by PredictIt:
PredictIt: “Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?”
PredictIt at 11am Pacific today:
Is California in Recession? (Part XVIII)
June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from over one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Now That We Are Winning, Where Is CoRev?
From Reuters today, “Hopes for trade breakthrough fade as China cancels U.S. farm visits”:
A U.S.-China trade deal appeared elusive on Friday after Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to farms in Montana and Nebraska amid two days of ongoing talks in Washington.
