With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of November 25
Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Transition Teams – Economics
TPM has the list of transition team members. Below I reproduce those involving in economics.
Covid-19 Is Still Here: Implications for Employment
A reminder that it’s still possible to save tens of thousands of lives, with a return to competence and science in the waning days of the Trump administration (it goes without saying management would improve immeasurably in the Biden-Harris administration). Covid-19 hospitalizations are soaring. Seven day rolling average of deaths is at 970, showing a rapid ascent (it’s rising 19% per week). How long can employment continue to grow as the pandemic again surges?
Macroeconomic Management in the New Administration
today, as I was writing a short comment on the dollar’s prospects, I realized how much my views were informed by who was likely to be managing the macroeconomy. Just to make this point concrete, consider the economic team under Trump, as compared to under Obama as the latter confronted the Great Recession:
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities
Fatalities are likely rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Yet More Economists against Trump
In addition to previous open letters, here is one released today, with over 750 signatories:
Alan Blinder on the Biden Agenda
The Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE) sponsored a series of talks on the election and economic issues. Yesterday’s talk was by Princeton’s Alan Blinder (former CEA member, former Fed Vice Chair). His talk with Q&A is here (YouTube).
Other visitors included Lee Ohanian, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Casey Mulligan and Brian Riedl (Manhattan Institute).
Guest Contribution: “Post COVID-19 Exit strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Hiro Ito (Portland State University) .
Some People Think Covid-19 Hospitalizations Are Level
Reader Bruce Hall writes yesterday:
Cases continue to escalate; deaths do not; hospitalizations are basically level. The hyperbole around cases is unfortunate because infections are not categorized for action since asymptomatic to severe are lumped together.