Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
The Four Golfcartmen of the Apocalypse
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check!
Expectations off a Cliff
Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Uncertainty: Does It Matter?
From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.
Why Shouldn’t the Stock Market Be Crashing?
Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys:
GDPNow and Other Predictions
Accounting for gold, GDPNow for Q1 is at +0.4%.
“King Dollar” by Paul Blustein
In my IRL mailbox! Looking forward to reading… Continue reading
EPU through 3/5
Highest 7 day moving average since Covid…(not sure if that date coincides with “bleach”):
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, yesterday’s lecture:
Trump’s Economic Team and Tariff-fest 2025
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome.