From Wells Fargo today:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Nowcasting, Big Data, MIDAS, Lasso, etc.
I get the impression that people mix up things that are logically distinct, even if they might overlap. For instance, one reader says criticizes the failure to use big data at the Fed [1] [2] (see this post for a rejoinder) and in a closely adjoining comment, contrasts the GDPNow series run by the Atlanta Fed and the absence of a global counterpart at the Board. Let’s define some terms, so people who are inclined toward confusion become less confused.
“Big Data” at the Fed
A reader bewails the failure of the Fed to use “new” tools like “big data”. And yet, 10 seconds to type into the Fed’s search engine yields dozens of pages of results. Why is it that some people fail to understand the limitations of their own knowledge, and simultaneously refuse to use “search engines”. Anyway, here’s excerpts from the first two pages of results:
GDP Forecasts – Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey
A hiccup in growth for Q1, then resumed growth (SPF) eventually exceeding potential GDP (at least as estimated by CBO last June).
Cliff’s Notes for Nonacademics to Assess Academic Publications
I see so much nonsense written by people who purport to understand who has a “good” publication record and who does not (no names named, you know who you are). Here are a couple of hints.
Uncertainty and Risk Measures
If Russia were to invade the Ukraine, all bets are off on macro and financial forecasts. Given the recent briefing, here’s what some measures of uncertainty and risk look like:
Expected Inflation over the 12 Months
All measures — even those typically upwardly biased — indicate slower inflation over the next year.
The Recovery in Wisconsin
Output is still below peak levels.
The Asset Side of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Credit Easing to Date
You can always see a nice graphic showing the broad breakdown of Fed asset holdings at the Cleveland Fed’s website:
GDP almost back to potential
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II.
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