On thinking about today’s CPI numbers:
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When a Purported Policy Analyst Writes: “Does a confidence interval … change what you would have done or should do? If it doesn’t, then it’s a mere artefact, a curiosity, but of no use to people making real world decisions”
You should run away from that “policy analyst” as fast as you can. The above is a quote from Steven Kopits, who styles himself a policy analyst. His entire comment is here.
Manufacturing over the Long Term
Reader Bruce Hall wishes for any discussion of the impact of trade policies include displays of the manufacturing sector’s progress, over the maximally long period. Here, without further ado, is what I could gather quickly.
How Not to Estimate Losses from Climatic Disasters
In re: Hurricane Maria, what do we know a bit over five years later?
Manufacturing Malaise?
Manufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?
Russia Slows, Struggles to Supply the War Effort
From BOFIT:
Wisconsin FoxConned by Walker et al.
On the day in which President Biden announced the repurposing of the site that was to be Foxconn’s, I reprint this 2017 assessment.
Some Textbooks
Public Service Announcement, for those who wish to talk intelligently about macro, instead of ranting. Here’s what I use (in response to Steven Kopits asking “What the he** do you teach your students, Menzie”). The following are free use, or older editions that have been superseded by newer.
Consumer Price Index Manual
If you’re going to willy-nilly divide things by random deflators, maybe you should read this (free) manual first.
Are You Better Off than You Were Four Years Ago – Market Based PCE Deflated Consumption
Reader Bruce Hall disparages the use of the PCE deflator for deflating…PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) from the NIPA. OK, it’s true that the PCE deflator uses business facing prices, rather than consumer facing prices. Mr. Hall suggests using the CPI. But that has different weights. (It doesn’t make sense to apply a price index with CPI weights to an aggregate with PCE weights — read some price index theory if that is confusing). What to do? What to do?