The IMF’s October 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts are out.
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Measured Inflation in August
A CNN headline notes “A key measure of inflation surged to a new 30-year high”, with that key inflation measure being the year-on-year (y/y) personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, very similar to a headline a month ago. But in any case, by focusing on the y/y rate, they missed the main message In today’s release — that month-on-month (m/m) annualized PCE inflation was down from March peak, from 7% to 4% (and roughly the same as in July). Moreover, the core counterpart was also down from the April peak, from 7.7% to 4.1% (3.6% y/y hitting the Bloomberg consensus on the nose, and a little higher than m/m consensus.)
Wisconsin’s Labor Markets in August
Employment numbers for August were released yesterday. Nonfarm payroll employment fell, and is undershooting the July 2021 Economic Forecast:
More on the China Slowdown
From BBVA (Jinyue Dong & Le Xia) today, discussing August data: “China | Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”:
Wisconsin Monthly Economic Update
From the Wisconsin Department of Revenue – September issue. The regular publication of Economic Forecast reports (latest here) and the innovation of monthly updates contrasts strongly with the near economic news blackout in the second Scott Walker administration (discussed here). DoR has also added a lot more data visualizations, here.
GDP at Risk? (update)
An increasing amount of GDP is accounted for by counties with rising fatalities, a slight change from a couple weeks ago.
X-Files, 2021 Edition
It seems every decade or so, there is a bout of paranoia about government statistics, to wit, a reader asserts the BLS is hiding data on median wages:
Lumber Prices
Fell 34.3% (not annualized, in log terms) in July.
Deceleration – The July CPI Release
From BLS today:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Business Cycle Indicators as of August 2
IHS-MarkIt (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) released monthly GDP today. The July employment situation will be released this Friday.