EconoFact has been providing insights into the current health/economic crisis. Here is a compendium:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
GDP Forecasts (updated 3/21)
CDC Estimates of the Covid-19 Toll
[Update – Figure added 3/14 1:30pm Central. Source: Torsten Slok, DB.]
From The Hill today:
One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.
It found as many as 21 million people might need hospitalization, a daunting figure in a nation with just about 925,000 hospital beds.
Be Afraid: Administration Economic Management Teams Compared
Feels like 2008-09. But doesn’t. Compare who’s running the show in the White House…(Updated lists from 2019 post).
[table corrected 3/10, thx to Giles Warrack]
The Fed looks good (when it’s allowed to do it’s own thing, unencumbered by Trump tirades). Otherwise…
It ain’t 2009…
Forward Looking Components of Economic Activity
Nonresidential fixed investment has been declining for three quarters, while equipment has been declining for two quarters. If Atlanta Fed nowcasts prove right for the current quarter, then as of 2020Q1, equipment investment will have fallen for three quarters (while nonresidential will still be below peak).
Guest Contribution: “The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rates”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), Adam Cap (BIS), Andrej Mijakovic (European University Institute) and Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
Remembering Representative Ryan’s Legacy
Brian Riedl writes:
I’ve never understood the intense hatred of Paul Ryan. Agree or disagree on policies — he treated people well (even when they didn’t return the favor), avoided demagoguery, good family man, no scandals. Thats what we should want out of elected officials.
Pre-Benchmarking Manufacturing Employment in MI, PA, and WI
The pre-benchmarked establishment survey suggests declining employment in key industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Using the methodology I used to inferring the national establishment survey, can we anticipate the revision to manufacturing in these states?
Productivity, Product Wage, and Real Wage
Productivity and costs for 2019Q4 were released yesterday.
Business Cycle Indicators as of 1/29 as Real 10 Year Rate Goes Negative
Monthly GDP growth is slow in December: