I remember once seeing a book on a used bookstore shelf in Washington DC (Second Story Books?) years ago entitled “Great Public Policy Disasters” or something like that. Over this year, I’ve been thinking that one could write an entire book series entitled “Great Public Policy Disasters of 2020” . With that in mind, here’s the year in review:
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“In Memory of Richard Cooper”
By Jeffrey Frankel, December 24, 2020.
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 23
Key indicators tracked by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) show mixed behavior; income (ex-transfers) declines. So too does consumption.
Quick Primer on Stock Market vs. GDP
The stock market booms while GDP staggers along. Why?
MV = PQ?
Tautologically, yes; maybe not so much if V (velocity) is constant.
Inflation Looming?
The Economist says unlikely. Surveys and market expectations concur.
The Economic Outlook – WSJ December Survey
No acceleration in growth rates, and short term growth prospects dim, but GDP level higher relative to October — but not November — survey.
Where Are You?
I’m teaching “Macroeconomic Policy” for upper level undergrads this semester. Obviously, the interpretation and suggested conduct of policy depends on how you view the world, which is hard to contextualize simply. But I think annotating this graph works great — and you can ask yourself — “Where am I?” (The “You are here” addresses my students…)
ADP Private Nonfarm Payrolls in November
The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.
“Trifecta”
When the Biden economic team members were announced, I wondered if there was any pattern to discern in the locus of Republican attacks. As far as I can tell, it’s not expertise, it’s not ideological bent, it’s not what school you went to. But here is a Venn diagram to help you identify what makes you a “no-go”.