From twitter:

Ever since I read the hysterically incorrect interpretation of a confidence interval from a person who purports to be a policy analyst, I’ve been looking for a succint explanation from a statistician, as a handy reference. Here it is (h/t David Giles via Mark Thoma):

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“Republican Rep. Jason Smith yelled a potentially racially charged remark across the aisle as Democratic Rep. Tony Cárdenas was at the podium.” (Roll Call)

That’s the title of a special issue of the Journal of International Money and Finance that’s just been published.

It’s kind of limiting to look only at recessions as predicted by the yield curve. What about growth?

December coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.

Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]

The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the December employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred in 2017. However, growth has decelerated at the end of 2018.

Short term growth prospects are “baked in”, from the Walker/Vos/Fitzgeral regime. Interestingly, we have mixed signals from economic indicators (and no signal from some that are delayed — thanks, Trump!).

From NYT, “Foxconn Is Reconsidering Plan for Wisconsin Factory“:

Foxconn, the giant Taiwan-based company that announced plans for a $10 billion display-making factory in Wisconsin, now says it is rethinking the project’s focus because of “new realities” in the global marketplace.

Today, we are pleased to present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

Below are the peer-reviewed journal articles authored or co-authored by Stephen Moore, CNN “economic expert”:

This list might be incomplete.