Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I thank Sohaib Nasim for research assistance and Emil Kaneti for catching a mistake in an earlier draft.
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Why Is Wisconsin Construction Booming?
Residential or nonresidential?
Economic Report of the President, 2024
Released today, full text available here.
Republican Study Group Proposals
Text here.
FOMC March SEP on GDP
2024 q4/q4 growth at 2.1% matches FT-IGM survey discussed in previous post.
Things that Are Unseen
In economics. Reader JohnH disparages attempts to measure r* (and r* plus expected inflation):
Question is, would anyone recognize the neutral rate if it stared them right in the face? And if it could be identified, would it be wearing its real face, a nominal one, or a “natural” one?
X-Files, 2024 Edition
On mainstream economists hiding information regarding the BEA’s development of distributional national accounts, reader John Hofer wrote in January of 2024:
Republicans/Lean-Republicans and the Biden Effect on Economic Sentiment
Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation:
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII (updated, with Divisia MZM added)
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”.
Real Household Net Worth (from Flow of Funds)
Rising in 2023Q4: