While (final) sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey remains surprisingly downbeat given observables, the decline needs to be put into context.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
How Well Is Wisconsin Doing Macroeconomically?
At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites’ views on the state’s economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy’s state differs from respondent’s own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy’s conditions.
Day 1 Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
It was a real pleasure to get to attend the conference (agenda here). Incredibly informative and stimulating — sometimes I think I know a lot about a subject, but conferences like this disabuse me of that notion.
I add links to ungated versions of the papers presented today, below:
Eric Hovde Predicts
recession, stock market decline, and housing market decline. From December 19th (Newport Beach Independent):
- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024.
May SPF GDP Forecast (updated w/17 May Nowcasts)
Continued growth (report):
Friends Don’t Let Friends Think Only Bivariately
On thinking about today’s CPI numbers:
When a Purported Policy Analyst Writes: “Does a confidence interval … change what you would have done or should do? If it doesn’t, then it’s a mere artefact, a curiosity, but of no use to people making real world decisions”
You should run away from that “policy analyst” as fast as you can. The above is a quote from Steven Kopits, who styles himself a policy analyst. His entire comment is here.
Manufacturing over the Long Term
Reader Bruce Hall wishes for any discussion of the impact of trade policies include displays of the manufacturing sector’s progress, over the maximally long period. Here, without further ado, is what I could gather quickly.
How Not to Estimate Losses from Climatic Disasters
In re: Hurricane Maria, what do we know a bit over five years later?
Manufacturing Malaise?
Manufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?