Full quote of Donald Trump regarding default (CNBC):
“Well, you might as well do it now because you’ll do it later because we have to save this country. Our country is dying. Our country is being destroyed by stupid people, by very stupid people.”
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Of Nowcasts and Revisions
Don’t pay too much attention to the headline change in employment.
Mass Shooting Fatalities This Year Are Not So Bad If You Exclude “Illegal Immigrants” (read subhumans)
As defined by Governor Abbott:
GDP, GDP+, Final Sales
Jim noted recurrent delays in the long heralded recession in his Thursday post. Here are some additional reflections on where economic activity has been, and where it is heading, relying on additional data. GDPNow (which hit the mark for Q1 growth) indicates continued growth through Q2. S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) indicates a plateau has been reached. Final sales (i.e., GDP ex. inventories) suggests continued growth.
The Godot recession
Everybody’s waiting for it, but it’s still not here yet.
Continue reading
On Illiteracy
Reader JohnH writes about the discourse on Econbrowser:
Amazing the Krugman’s minimalist treatment of inequality far exceeds what I see mentioned here!
Weekly Macro Indicators through April 8
Here’re some macro indices at the weekly frequency for the real economy.
How Well Do Adaptive Inflation Expectations Do, 1982-2023?
Answer: so-so.
Reader Erik Poole commenting on this figure (in this post) writes:
Assuming that the all the inflation forecasts are one-year forecasts in the above chart, do we have any kind of inflation expectations data for shorter time frames, such as 6 months?
The above is a fancy way of asking: are financial markets and professional forecastersb really that bad at forecasting inflation?
Glancing at the above chart, it appears to make a good argument for adaptive expectations driving economic agents inflation expectations.
White House on Revising Guidance on “Regulatory Analysis”
Otherwise known as Circular A-4. dated April 6, 2023.
Nonfarm Employment Rises
In line with expectations.