Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today:
FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts.
Canada and Recession
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could impart enough uncertainty to throw the country into recession.
How Competitive Is China?
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
If You Thought Construction Costs Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Average hourly wages in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (CPI deflated):
If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.
MacIver Institute Does International Trade: Be VERY Afraid
Seizing Russian Assets: If Not Now, When?
From Hess and Mott, in Foreign Policy, on stifling further Russian aggression even with Trump on the gates: