Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.
State of the Macro Economy, 10/6/2024: 19 Indicators and 4 Nowcasts
NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn in the current vintages of (preliminary) data.
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months.
“Fake” Economic Activity
A common refrain I see in some conservative circles is that employment gains or GDP are juiced by “fake” activity, of which government spending is one and health care services are another (health care services are allegedly “fake” by virtue of being mostly government funded – at least that’s the argument I see a lot).
Did Government Employment Account for Most of September’s Employment Gains?
Business Cycle Indicators – with September Employment
The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
Here’s the current situation:
NFP Blowout
Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
My guess for private NFP:
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures Compared
ADP surprised on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):