Bloomberg consensus 2.7%, GDPNow 2.3% as of today. Jim Hamilton comments on the release tomorrow.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Predictions from the December 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Heritage’s EJ Antoni on “Cleaning House” at the Fed
“I think Trump is really holding a grudge, and rightly so” noted Antoni, “I’m not sure that there’s anything Trump can do to work with this institution [the Fed]. I think what he really needs to do is clean house.
Economic Confidence in the Future Declines
January Conference Board confidence index comes in at 104.1 vs. 105.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from 109.5 in December. A 5.4 point decline is about 1 standard deviation (2021M07-2024M12). More interestingly, expectations (as opposed to current situation) is also down.
Trump: Bringing Grocery Prices Down [sic] – Coffee Edition
How Much Does Undocument Immigration Push Down Wages of Native Born Workers
Mr. Bruce Hall quotes from Avila in a FRB Cleveland note:
Egg Prices and Egg Contracts for Difference
Egg prices and price index through December, egg CFDs through January.
If Avian Flu Hits Chicken Flocks, and the CDC Is Muted, Will That Reduce Egg Prices?
Also, if egg prices are not reported, will higher egg prices matter? From Fox5 Atlanta:
The Trump Administration has frozen many federal health agencies’ communications with the public until at least the end of the month.
The freeze affects the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based in Atlanta, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)—entities tasked with fighting epidemics, ensuring food safety, and advancing disease research, according to a memo obtained by the Associated Press.
Forecasts: WSJ vs. CBO vs. Biden Troika vs. IMF
A comparison:
And So It Begins: Rules vs. Discretion 2025
From AP:
…on Thursday during the World Economic Forum’s annual event in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he would reduce oil prices, and then “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world.”