Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).
CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown
Letter released today:
Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”
Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level in September.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .
Confirmed: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Rises
From Baker, Bloom and Davis, as well as Caldara et al., in the wake of Section 232 (“National Security”) tariffs on bathroom vanities, upholstered furniture, and some pharmaceuticals.
Trump Shock on GDP vs. “Core GDP” Trajectories
Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum.
Guest Contribution: “Do Voters Pursue Their Economic Self-Interest?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
In Search of the Section 232 (National Security) Report on Bathroom Vanities
This is what I found on the Bureau of Industrial Security/Dept of Commerce website:
Guest Contribution: “Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).
EPU Spikes: Government Shutdowns vs. 9/11, Lehman, “Bleach”, “Liberation Day”
I was wondering what happens to measured economic policy uncertainty during government shutdowns. In point of fact, EPU (as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis index) rises, but the increase is on average dwarfed by events like Covid-19/”Bleach” advice, and “Liberation Day”.