Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier vesion in Project Syndicate.
Whither Real Rates?
The collision of expansionary fiscal policy, slowing growth, and the erosion of policy credibility, particularly since 27 February 2026, suggests … up and high.
President Trump, Socialist
from Politico today, Douglas Holtz-Eakin:
Does Slowing AI-Related Imports Mean Slowing Investment?
Maybe:
Forecasts and Nowcasts
The August Survey of Professional Forecasters is out:
Sentiment Declines
standardized measures:
Retail Sales Miss
Instead of +0.1% increase, 0.6% drop.
Inflation Adjusted Wages, through July
Estimated FY2026 Budget Deficit
From CBO.
Cost of Living Measures
Including Everyday Price Index™. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI: