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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators – 6 May 2025

Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Plain Vanilla 12-month ahead Recession Predictions

Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:

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This entry was posted on May 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

American Association of Physicians and Surgeons Opines on … Gold

For my sins, I get emails from AAPS:

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This entry was posted on May 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Alternative Estimates of Output

GDP is a measure of output from the spending side.  A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and GDI.

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This entry was posted on May 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

A Closer Look at Employment

Transportation and warehousing boomed.  Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention).

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This entry was posted on May 2, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment and Business Cycle Indicators

Continued growth apparent, although NFP employment pertains to first half of April.

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This entry was posted on May 2, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Measured EPU on the Rise, Again

Through May 1st:

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This entry was posted on May 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Monthly Consumption, Personal Income, Mfg/Trade Indus Sales

And other NBER BCDC indicators.

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This entry was posted on May 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economy stumbles into 2025

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. One can make excuses for the number, but I’m not feeling optimistic.

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This entry was posted on April 30, 2025 by James_Hamilton.

100 Day Marker: Economic Optics Not Great

GDPNow at -1.5% q/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed.

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This entry was posted on April 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes
  • Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
  • Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
  • CEA Unleashed!
  • “That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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