S&P Global Market Intelligence has put up monthly GDP through December. Here’s a picture of NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators along with monthly GDP.
Inflation Expectations, by Party
The Michigan survey of Consumers revealed that Republican respondents expected one year inflation to be zero as of January 2025. From Torsten Slok:
EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
Up, up and away.
One Year Inflation Expectations Upside Surprise
Michigan 1 year expectations at 4.3% vs 3.3% Bloomberg consensus.
Ante-mutua portoriis EPU
…or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures.
Business Cycle Indicators with January Employment
Change in NFP below consensus, but previous months upwardly revised. Big benchmark revision (-610 thousand), but even larger — 2 million upward — revision to December 2024 civilian employment.
*Reported* Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%)(!)
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2025 employment figures (but 2024 not updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted civilian employment (household survey) disappears as a consequence.
Costing Trump Tax Priorities
From CRFB, $5-$11.2 trn over 10 years:
Correlation or Causation?
We know that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. But sometimes you gotta wonder, especially as Mr. Trump’s administration is busily dismantling the CIA. First, GW Bush ignore the PDB of August 8, 2001, on “Bin Laden determined to strike in US”. Then Trump 1.0 eliminates the NSC directorate on pandemic preparedness before the Covid-19 pandemic (and apparently with the exception of Peter Navarro(!) ignores warnings about Covid).
Egg Prices Upward
Covered for difference prices as reported by TradingEconomics is jumping up to $7/dozen for January.