July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth?
Monthly GDP Flat Since March
SPGMI’s estimate as of 8/3:
Mr. Trump, tear down this (hamburger tariff) wall!
From Bloomberg:
Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Earnings below February 2026 Levels
They’re all lower than they were in February … but deflated using CPI ex shelter (mimicking HICP), they’re down 1.4%.
“I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt.”
That is Donald J. Trump, in May 2016. So why the surprise about debt worries? It was only a question of time.
Import Prices Running Hot
Not just for computers, peripherals and semiconductors – and running hot despite dollar appreciation. From MarketPlace, with Justin Ho, today:
Diesel Near Peak
From the Gasoline and Diesel update, plus EIA:
Business Cycle Indicators: June Production
Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment.
Fall 2026 Semester: The Financial System (and Its Challenges)
Last year I added cryptocurrencies and private credit to the coverage. What should I add this Fall?
Are We Safer than We Were 6 Months Ago?
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no deal apparent, and we are moving the George Washington CSG away from the Pacific.