From USNI.
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
Talking about the dollar, Trump, and stupidity as an exogenous variable, next couple of days…
Guest Contribution: “Is Immigration Bad for America?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim.
Nowcasts and Forecasts
Nowcasts are typically below pre-war forecasts.
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
From the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, today:
Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months:
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
Up 0.26 ppts since the war’s beginning. Using Treasury and TIPS:
Regular Folk Prices
Courtesy of BLS, AIER, and (for nowcast) Cleveland Fed. Prepare for impact.
Brent-Urals Spread Today:
Urals way up, to $92.4
Your Morning Petroleum Price Sitrep: Brent Prompt Nears $110
Brought to you by TrumpCo: