Mid-March to be specific.
Has the Recession Already Started?
Even if the answer is yes, we won’t know for a long time.
What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve
Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line):
2 April 2025: An Event Study
Odds of a recession in 2025:
Doug Irwin: “…bigger than Smoot-Hawley”
From Bloomberg:
Further Inversion of the Treasury Yield Curve
As of close today:
Negative GDP Growth in Q1?
GDPNow as of today:
Forward Looking Implications of Consumption Behavior in the Trump 2.0 Era
Aggregate consumption drops as income ex-current transfers rises. The pattern of disaggregated consumption pattern suggests tariff-induced front-loading drove some of the support for consumption in December.
James Hamilton: “Are consumer sentiment studies a good measure of the economy?”
Jim Hamilton (with others) answers the question in the San Diego Union-Tribune:
Bordo-Siklos Central Bank Credibility, using Michigan Expectations
Using final March numbers: