From the May Survey of Professional Forecasters:
Michigan Survey Implies a Catastrophic Collapse of Fed Inflation Credibility
NY Fed survey doesn’t [corrected per Gorodnichenko- median NY Fed does not, but mean would]
Economic Sentiment Continues to Fall as Inflation Expectations Climb Further
Sentiment (prelminary) below consensus.
Graphs from “Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
New conditions, not new approaches. From my presentation (PDF) yesterday for MCFR:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: April Manufacturing Production and Real Retail Sales Down
Both production and sales below m/m consensus.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May; Manufacturing Contracts in “Liberation” Month
Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises.
Why I Think Economic Policy Uncertainty Is Likely to Stay High
The end of the China import tariff pause is about the same time as the debt ceiling x-date…
Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP
Monthly data, with May through the 13th.
*Not* Making the Planes Run on Time
What exactly has the current administration gotten us? Not lower prices (as was promised). For now, not apparently safer skies.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Up
We should all be relieved that there’s been a 90 day pause in the tariffs on Chinese imports, but since they’re on tap in 90 days, and at unknown levels, don’t be surprised that uncertainty remains high…