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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators: Employment in March

Mid-March to be specific.

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This entry was posted on April 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Has the Recession Already Started?

Even if the answer is yes, we won’t know for a long time.

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This entry was posted on April 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve

Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line):

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This entry was posted on April 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

2 April 2025: An Event Study

Odds of a recession in 2025:

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This entry was posted on April 2, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Doug Irwin: “…bigger than Smoot-Hawley”

From Bloomberg:

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This entry was posted on April 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Further Inversion of the Treasury Yield Curve

As of close today:

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This entry was posted on April 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Negative GDP Growth in Q1?

GDPNow as of today:

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This entry was posted on April 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Forward Looking Implications of Consumption Behavior in the Trump 2.0 Era

Aggregate consumption drops as income ex-current transfers rises. The pattern of disaggregated consumption pattern suggests tariff-induced front-loading drove some of the support for consumption in December.

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This entry was posted on March 31, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

James Hamilton: “Are consumer sentiment studies a good measure of the economy?”

Jim Hamilton (with others) answers the question in the San Diego  Union-Tribune:

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This entry was posted on March 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Bordo-Siklos Central Bank Credibility, using Michigan Expectations

Using final March numbers:

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This entry was posted on March 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)
  • EJ Antoni Redefines Recession as What the American People Feel
  • Downgrades and CDS
  • Thoughts on Soft vs. Hard Data
  • Republicans’ Economic Outlook Darken

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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