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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Real Wages, Through December (updated)

Average wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in total private and leisure and hospitality services, and implied by median wage growth, all up relative to 2019M12, just before the pandemic. [update and ECI through Q3]

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This entry was posted on January 16, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Measuring One Aspect of BRICS De-Dollarization: FX Reserves

Interesting recent article from the Carnegie Endowment, entitled “The Difficult Realities of the BRICS’ Dedollarization Efforts—and the Renminbi’s Role”, by Robert Greene.

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This entry was posted on January 15, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Northern Hemisphere – Land Temperature Anomaly, through 2023

From NOAA:

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This entry was posted on January 14, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Erasmus University: “The 25th anniversary ECB Symposium”

Taking place on January 16th in Rotterdam, this is the second part of the symposium at the Erasmus School of Economics & Rotterdam School of Management on this topic, organized by  Mary Pieterse-Bloem and Sylvester Eijffinger. The first part took place last July.

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This entry was posted on January 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Consumer Prices

Show differing trajectories, depending on coverage, construction.

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This entry was posted on January 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Measures of Growth, into the New Year

WEI accelerates, while WECI decelerates.

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This entry was posted on January 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation in December: Instantaneous, Core, Supercore, Services supercore, Trimmed, Median

From the December release with headline and core slightly above Bloomberg consensus.

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This entry was posted on January 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

FX Reserve Holdings – 50 Years of Data

And 30 years of turnover data. Currently doing regressions on data on reserve bank holdings, in a project with Jeffrey Frankel and  Hiro Ito. In terms of aggregates, we have 50 years of estimates (about 25 years of actual data, and yet fewer years on (selected) individual central bank data)

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This entry was posted on January 9, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

History, According to Some

In commenting on this post comparing the post-Great Influenza and post-Covid period, Mr. Kopits asserts:

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This entry was posted on January 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Nowcasts and Expectations

NY Fed median expected y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.

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This entry was posted on January 8, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”
  • GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
  • A Cost-Push Shock?
  • Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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