In a way, yes — that is in terms of levels. In terms of pace of change, no.
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators
With September employment reported today (336K vs. 170K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following picture of the economy.
The Boom in Manufacturing Structures Investment
Data from 2023Q2 post-revision, and Census construction numbers:
Quantity Theory and (Broad) Money Demand in Normal and Abnormal Times
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With monthly GDP reported today, we have the following picture of the economy.
Policy Uncertainty over the Last Forty Years (Again)
It (still) seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01, even without an ad hoc measure for the pandemic.
GDP and Nowcasts: Continued Growth in Q3
As of today:
Business Cycle Indicators, Pre- and Post-Comprehensive Revision
The BEA comprehensive revisions combined with August data changes the business cycle picture somewhat. The downturn in personal income ex-transfers and manufacturing and trade industry sales in 2022H1 look a lot bigger.
August Consumption, Income, Deflators, post-Comprehensive Revision
Courtesy of Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Guest Contribution: “Underlying Inflation and Asymmetric Risks”
Today we present a guest post written by Danilo Leiva-León (European Central Bank), Hervé Le Bihan (Bank of France) and Matías Pacce (Bank of Spain). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank of France, Bank of Spain, European Central Bank or the Eurosystem.