Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release yesterday, looking at different aspects of economic activity:
Economy back to growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the second quarter. I have some concerns, but it looks better than many economists had been anticipating.
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Final Nowcast for Q2
Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Forecasts: CEA >> IMF > WSJ
From IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, released today:
A Quasi-Real Time Measure of the Average Effective Tariff Rate
The Yale Budget Lab regularly (’cause… Trump) updates the stated effective tariff rate. But what’s the actual effective tariff rate in effect given all the threats, pauses, etc.? Not sure? Fortunately, Paweł Skrzypczyński is on the case:
Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)
The Conference Board today:
Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”
That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers:
What Happens If IEEPA Tariffs Are Rule Illegal?
Oral arguments before the appellate court take place this week. Suppose the tariffs invoked under IEEPA are struck down, then that decision would likely be appealed to the Supreme Court (eventually). From CNBC:
Stay Tuned: World Trade for June
Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)
The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by value)? From Joey Politano, the answer: