We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this is recovery is durable in the wake of Trump’s attacks on Fed independence (including a historic non-ceremonial visit by a sitting President).
How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data.
The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps.
LA under Occupation: Macro Indicators for California
On June 7, President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed troops to LA. This followed instances of aggressively conducted ICE raids against various establishments. Economic activity declined in both LA and rural areas engaged in agriculture.
GAO: “Automatic supports are most effective when they are timely, temporary, targeted, and predictable”
I think we’ll need these sooner than you think. But legislation has just been passed to disable these supports.
Guess the Time Series
Google Trends accessed today:
Quick and Dirty Check on Whether Steel Prices Have Fallen
Recall CEA has asserted that imported goods prices (incl tariffs) have fallen relative to domestically produced, based on conjoining 2017 IO tables and PCE data. I wondered whether imported goods prices and prices of close substitutes have fallen. To investigate, I do something simpler: look at steel import prices (ex-tariffs) and steel PPI (incl. tariffs).
Bertaut, von Beschwitz and Curcuru/FRB: “The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition”
FEDS note published on Friday:
Consumer Price Level – Alternatives
How’s dropping prices for everyday folks going?
How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?
The Commerce Department eliminated two advisory committees on economic statistics gathering (see Marketplace). BLS received some additional funds in March as part of a continuing resolution; however the Trump budget proposal includes an 8% reduction in budget in nominal terms.