From NYT:
The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.
Rookie Economist Errors: A Compendium
I start teaching a couple classes tomorrow; here are some cautionary notes.
Instantaneous Inflation
From a new working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), h/t Torsten Slok:
Deja Vu. Oder, “Haben Sie einen Professor zu melden?”
From Turning Point USA‘s website:
Party Affiliations of Fed Economists and Purported Political Homogeneity
From an Independent Review article by Emre Kuvvet:
Guest Contribution: “Crashing Through the Debt Ceiling”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and LA Times.
A Graphic Exposition on Seasonality in Key Macro Indicators
Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.
Guest Contribution: “Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Dimitrios Kanelis (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Müun) and Pierre Siklos, (Wilfrid Laurier University and CAMA at ANU). The views expressed here are their own and do not reflect the official opinions of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Why Friends Shouldn’t Let Friends Mix and Match Seasonally Adjusted and Seasonally Unadjusted Data in Calculating Changes
Reader Bruce Hall comments in his defense of calculating an 18 month change using not seasonally adjusted CPI data, and then 6 months of seasonally adjusted data:
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Calculate 18 Month Not-Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates
Bruce Hall seems to think calculating 18 month inflation rates (either annualized or not) is just fine. It is just fine. As long as you don’t do it using not-seasonally-adjusted data. If you do that, you really should be clear. Illustrative example for CPI below.