The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series.
Manufacturing in Recession?
Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector.
The Preliminary Benchmark Revision in Context
818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP.
Recession before the Election?
I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one. What do predictive models say?
NABE on Trade Policy
Conspiracy of Silence at the Treasury about the Definition of a Recession (!)
Not from the Onion, but rather from the Daily Signal, mouthpiece of the Heritage Foundation:
Guesses on the Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Grocery Prices and Wholesale Food Prices
The Harris Walz plan for reining in grocery prices appears to contain two components, one of which has attracted a lot of attention (stopping price gouging), while the second (antitrust against food processors) has garnered less criticism (see agenda here). While it might be the case that grocery store chains are exploiting some monopoly power, it’s not clear to me it’s the most important aspect of grocery price developments.
The Fiscal Implications of Trump and Harris Proposals – A Partial Count
Trump: $4 ($5.6) trillion increase in cumulative deficit, minus tariff revenue increase. Harris: $1.7 trillion. On the tariff impact, you have to ask: “do you feel lucky?”
EJ Antoni on the Recession
of 2022H1, in light of his declaration of recession now. From August 1, 2022, from Heritage Explains episode “Biden’s Recession”: