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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10

Here’s the data through 7/9:

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This entry was posted on July 10, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr

From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.

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This entry was posted on July 9, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…

Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg):

“TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change”

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This entry was posted on July 8, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty

A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words:

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This entry was posted on July 7, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?

There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry.

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This entry was posted on July 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Age of Angst? Macro Implications

Source: NYT, July 6, 2025.

The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount, but not too much relative to current policy. However, the composition of overall spending and taxes is altered considerably relative to both current law and current policy. Relative to current law:

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This entry was posted on July 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9

Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello,  Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:

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This entry was posted on July 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down

So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums:

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This entry was posted on July 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Central Bank Gold Holdings

A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”.

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This entry was posted on July 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate

Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0):

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This entry was posted on July 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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