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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis

From Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni on X:

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Thanks, Drumpf

WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend.

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty

Policy uncertainty has remains high; does it matter for economic uncertainty?

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This entry was posted on July 19, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Tariffs in the Data

From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category:

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales

Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC in Figure 1:

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%

From WSJ July survey out today:

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This entry was posted on July 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Dispersion in GDP Nowcasts

As of today:

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This entry was posted on July 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty *before* 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico … and Rosie O’Donnell

See here and here. Every morning I wake up, think I can’t see anything more crazy than what occurred yesterday, and then I check the news.

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This entry was posted on July 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1

Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS):

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This entry was posted on July 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July

From Cleveland Fed today:

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This entry was posted on July 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”
  • EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
  • The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
  • CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
  • The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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