From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.
Deepening Yield Curve Inversion at 6 months to 2 year Maturities since Inauguration Day
From 1/21/2025 to 3/10/2025, the 2 year constant maturity yield fell by 40 bps. Continue reading
Why Shouldn’t the Stock Market Be Crashing?
Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys:
GDPNow and Other Predictions
Accounting for gold, GDPNow for Q1 is at +0.4%.
“King Dollar” by Paul Blustein
In my IRL mailbox! Looking forward to reading… Continue reading
Economic Policy Uncertainty through 3/6/2025: Through the Roof!
The 7 day centered moving average is only exceeded by the April 2 and April 23 observations (the latter is “bleach”, if you are wondering).
Business Cycle Indicators plus Employment for February
CES based employment indicators (NFP, private NFP, hourly wages, hours) essentially at consensus. Here’s the roundup of key NBER indicators (of which employment and personal income ex-transfers are central).
EPU, News Sentiment, Term Spreads, VIX
Data available as of today:
Guest Contribution: “Trump’s far out negotiating positions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, written in advance of the March 4 tariffs, was published by Project Syndicate and the Korea Herald.
Nowcasts accounting for Gold Imports
Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow: