As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Economic Policy Making Agencies in China
From GS:
China Q3 GDP Is a Mystery
It would’ve been a partial mystery even if NBS had released the number. Now it’s even more of a mystery, as the release has been delayed indefinitely (Trade data is a mystery too…)
Forecasts of Russian GDP, pre- and post-
From Heli Simola, BOFIT, in “War’s price tag…”, consensus forecasts from February and from September:
Jeffry Frieden: “The Politics of Exchange Rates” (podcast)
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-October 2022
Industrial and manufacturing production both at 0.4% m/m growth, above consensus (0.1% and 0.2%, respectively) in September, showing resumed growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.
How Much Was the Expanded Russian Invasion of Ukraine Anticipated?
Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity thru 10/8
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Why Did Russia Expand Its Invasion of Ukraine?
According to Senator Ron Johnson, this is the reason (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March7, 2022):
Global Land Sea Temperature
From NOAA :