Here’s some data, from BOFIT, “Russian federal budget revenues continue to deteriorate,” published today:”
If We End Up Talking about the Global Recession of 2023, What/Who Will We Blame?
As forecasts are marked down (IMF releases new forecasts on Tuesday), here in two pictures is my answer:
CFR Growth Tracker
A great new tool for data visualization: y/y growth rates as of 2022Q1:
Tracking the Russian Economy: Are Sanctions Working? [Updated]
[Updated 7/22 using 7/22 BOFIT Weekly Monitor information] It depends on what you mean by “working”, even if Russian GDP (as reported) hasn’t collapsed yet in the reported statistics yet, the worst is likely yet to come. And some effects won’t be easily measurable.
So You Think We’re in a Recession Right Now? (Part VI)
Guest Contribution: “The US Q2 GDP Announcement Will Not Mean Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Inflation, Gasoline, Recession
I was on WPR’s Central Time today, discussing among other things: “Gas and oil prices are starting to come back down. We explore what that means for inflation and fears of a recession.”
Term Spreads Falling
And negative at the 2s10s:
One Year CPI Inflation Expectations as of Mid-July
NY Fed consumer expectations up in June, Michigan down in July. WSJ July survey mean says y/y inflation will be 3.9% in June 2023.
Inflation in June
A little bit of old news, but it seems useful to see what various indicators show, month-on-month annualized. Chained, trimmed and sticky price inflation are all lower than headline: