All suggesting slowing growth…maybe
The Pace of Employment Growth in States Cutting UI Benefits
Is slower than for those that didn’t. From Steve Englander/Standard Charter Bank:
Inflation Now and 70 Years Ago
Inflation surged at the beginning of the Korean War, with the economy at full employment. Here’s CPI and PPI inflation then and now…
NBER Declares Recession Trough at 2020M04
From NBER today:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record.
Labor Shortages in a Neoclassical Framework
I keep on seeing organizations like the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Association cry about worker shortages, as here:
Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies).
Forecasted Ten Year Interest Rate Trajectory Declines
From WSJ surveys:
Review of Subacchi, “The People’s Money: How China Is Building a Global Currency”
For those interested in the RMB, here’s my book review:
Some 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations — Households vs. Economists (again)
Household forecasts are about 2 percentage points above those of economists.
Some Trends in Real Wages
An argument increasingly being made is that inflation is being built into wage demands in a context of really tight labor markets, and this would induce a wage-price spiral. This outcome is plausible, but I think it’s useful to compare wages against CPI to see if wages are really abnormally high, and are starting to rise in tandem with inflation. [text corrected 8/13]