With the release of personal income and consumption, we have some of the last readings we’ll receive this year (although December’s readings will still be coming in in January). Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
More on Market Indicators pre- & post-Manchin
Following up on the previous post on expectations responses from the market to Manchin, Just putting together all the pieces of betting odds on the size of the reconciliation package, and the impact on implied expected inflation, real rates, and future economic activity. I plot on a 7 day frequency so as to include the odds from PredictIt, which do not stay constant over the weekend.
Breakevens and Term Spreads Pre- & Post-Manchin
Manchin’s announcement that he would vote against BBB constituted a kind of event study. Here are the market indicators of expected inflation and economic activity.
Per Capita GDP Doing Just Fine, Linearly, since 1947
If you don’t believe me, take a look at this time series plot of available US GDP per capita.
On Confidence Intervals and Logs
Confidence Intervals
Guest Contribution: “Is China’s growth rate negative?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by John G. Fernald, Jack Mueller, and Mark M. Spiegel (all of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco). Our views are our own, and not necessarily those of the Federal Board of Governors or the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Gasoline Prices Now… and Standard Errors
Reader rsm is perpetually concerned about the precision of economic data, most recently here in re: gasoline prices.
Why am I paying 12-15% more than the graph? What possible reason do you have for not including standard errors? Would error bars stop you from making all these claims about noise?
Below is the price of regular gasoline, plus/minus 1.96 standard errors.
Gasoline Prices Now
Are declining as of the beginning of this week:
Five Year Expected Inflation Now, Five Years from Now
From the markets:
How Much of the Trade Deficit Is Government Spending Induced?
Some of it – but some indications are that it’s not the majority.