More on Market Indicators pre- & post-Manchin

Following up on the previous post on expectations responses from the market to Manchin, Just putting together all the pieces of betting odds on the size of the reconciliation package, and the impact on implied expected inflation, real rates, and future economic activity. I plot on a 7 day frequency so as to include the odds from PredictIt, which do not stay constant over the weekend.

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Gasoline Prices Now… and Standard Errors

Reader rsm is perpetually concerned about the precision of economic data, most recently here in re: gasoline prices.

Why am I paying 12-15% more than the graph? What possible reason do you have for not including standard errors? Would error bars stop you from making all these claims about noise?

Below is the price of regular gasoline, plus/minus 1.96 standard errors.

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