Following up on the previous nowcast post, there are two items of relevance: (1) trade balance (for May); (2) manufacturing orders. Here’s trade balance (release):
Nowcasts and Forecasts of 2022Q2 GDP Growth
These pertain to advance release numbers coming out tomorrow, recalling that they will be revised two times before end-September, as new data comes in. A slight change in views since 5 days ago.
The Fiscal and FX Crises of the Russian State (in War)
From Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (July 2022):
The Two Quarter GDP Decline of 1947
Using latest vintages of data:
Erasing the 2001 Recession
Here are data around 2001, for GDP, employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade industry sales, personal income. Note: no consecutive quarters of negative growth, as in the Chris Cillizza rule.
Chris Cillizza, Ill-informed Non-Economist, on the Definition of a Recession
A reader refers me to a non-economist for *the* definition of a recession, in this YouTube video of a CNN segment (highlighting once again why I don’t typically watch YouTube videos), Regarding the recent CEA article on the definition of a recession, CNN commentator Chris Cillizza states:
The China Outlook from the WEO
July WEO update:
In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers.
IMF Downgrades Growth Outlook
Risks heavily weighted to downside, in newest WEO, released today:
Alternative Measures of Output
Treasury’s discussion today of current outlook mentions GDPPlus, which I had not recalled. Here is GDPPlus in addition to GDP, GDI, and GDO.
Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
I sometimes see this assertion. It clearly has relevance given the pattern we have as of June 2022 data. The red arrows indicate local maxima.