Still number 1 (through 2021Q4), with rising shares to … AUD, CAD, and the CNY…
Monthly GDP and Other Business Cycle Indicators
With the release of IHS-Markit monthly GDP, we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.
Sovereign Debt Crisis or Oil in the Euro Area Recession of 2011-13
Conventional wisdom (sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures) or oil as cause? Steven Kopits says oil:
The cause of a brutal recession in Europe during Q4 2011 – Q1 2013 remains unexplained in policy circles. Or more precisely, the proposed explanation is less than compelling. … oil prices once again returned to high levels, with Brent regularly in the $100 – 115 range. With this, oil consumption in both the US and Europe began to decline, and such declines in oil consumption due to high prices — normally characterized as an oil shock — invariably leads to recession. … to suggest a Greek financial crisis could cause a recession in Europe is not entirely convincing. Greece’s GDP is all of 2% of that of the EU. It would be like a financial crisis in Indiana taking down the US economy. Conceivable, but it does not jump out at you.
Remarkable Things People Say
In this case, one person. Steven Kopits writes:
4. The US is immune to an oil shock on paper as we are ostensibly energy independent in oil. We’ve seen this play out before. US oil consumption declined from June 2011 to December 2012 — 18 months — without the US falling into recession, something which is historically unprecedented in modern times. By contrast, Europe fell into a steep recession during this period — Q4 2011 through Q1 2013.
Term Spread Models and Recession Probabilities for April 2023
Worries about recession are rising:
Some Observations on the Q1 GDP Release
Following up on Jim’s post, some additional comments on the Q1 GDP growth surprise of -1.4% SAAR; GDPNow was 0.4%, while IHS-Markit was -0.6% (and was way below Bloomberg consensus of 1.1%). What to take from this?
Guest Contribution: “Are Countries Impacted Differently by Higher Temperature?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Nelson Mark, Alfred C. DeCrane Jr. Professor of Economics (U. Notre Dame).
Why did U.S. real GDP fall?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend?
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Guest Contribution: “Energy Policies Can Be Both Geopolitical and Green”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“The New Fama Puzzle”
or “Do you really know what Uncovered Interest Parity is, and whether it holds?” Published as of today in IMF Economic Review, with coauthored with Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School), Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), and Jonas Heipertz (Columbia Business School):