Year-on-year picture:
Business Cycle Indicators end-June
With consumption (nominal at 0.2% vs.0.4% consensus) and personal income May releases, we have the following snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Does a Decline in the 12 Month Moving Average of VMT Presage a Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.
GDP and GDO, 3rd vs 2nd release
From BEA today:
Is a Decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled a 1 Month Leading Indicator for Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.
So You Think We Might Be in a Recession Today (Part III)
Some people point to initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Reminders: Don’t Accuse People of Manipulating the Data before Figuring Out What Has Been Done, and Other Helpful Hints for Not Losing All Credibility
Some additional notes for my students:
Reminders: Logs, Chain-Weights, Confidence Intervals, Data Footnotes, Data Revisions, and Stereotypes
Notes for my students:
Nowcasts and Forecasts
of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations as of End-June
Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.