Regarding the view the US economy was in recession earlier this year (e.g., this observer less than a month ago), the CFNAI has the following takes:
Implications of a Flex-Price Quantity Theory
The current GDP deflator should be 18% higher (in log terms), or 154.2 instead of 128.2. To see this, consider the tautology:
The State of the Economy in Real Time, Election Eve and Year Ahead
Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending on Oct 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, measured in growth rates relative to long-run national average growth, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly economic conditions index.
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-November
Industrial production declined 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The GDP Outlook: Nowcast vs. Forecast
Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4% q/q in Q4.
The “Trap” Closes: Kherson, 11/11/2022
Remember the question a skeptical JohnH asked on 9/2/2022, about the Ukrainian offensive? Here’s the answer:
Prediction Markets on Control of the Senate: 11/11/22
Looks like the betting is on Democratic control.
Trend CPI Down?
M/M headline vs. core vs. trimmed mean vs. median:
CPI Inflation below Expectations – Markets Respond
M/M CPI inflation 0.4% vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.6%, while core was 0.3% vs. 0.5%. All measures (m/m, q/q, y/y, headline/core) below recent peaks.
Prediction Market on Senate Conrol: Democratic at 93%
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt: