Like the rest of the nation, employment in Wisconsin recovered slightly. Unanswered is how sustainable the recovery is.
State and Local Employment in the Covid Recession
Employment has been cut tremendously. With massive impending revenue shortfalls, state and local spending will continue to remain depressed, placing a drag on the economic recovery – just as austerity measures slowed the recovery from the Great recession.
Guest Contribution: “Defining recessions when negative growth is too common or too rare”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee for 25 years, with his term ending last fall. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and in The Guardian.
Guest Contribution: “What Determines when a Recession is a Recession?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee for 25 years, with his term ending last fall. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and in The Guardian.
Business Cycle Indicators, June 16, 2020
As of today, here are key monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/29 release), Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
The NBER Business cycle Dating Committee has dated the most recent peak at February 2020 for monthly data, and 2019Q4 for quarterly. Jeffrey Frankel describes the reasoning for this date.
Q2 nowcast from Atlanta Fed is -48.5% (6/9), from NY Fed is -25.9% (6/12), St. Louis Fed is -38.9%(6/12), all SAAR. IHS Markit is -37.4% as of today.
The Hill: “Surging coronavirus cases raise fears of new lockdowns”
From The Hill:
Sharp increases in the number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in states across the nation have some local elected officials considering pauses in reopening their economies.
The rising number of cases are hitting hardest in Sun Belt states like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. All four of those states reported their highest single-day increase in the number of confirmed cases over the weekend.
Officials have also pointed to a troubling trend in the number of people who must be hospitalized for treatment, raising anew the frightening prospect of an overwhelmed health system. …
Enter the Tilde? Rising Covid-19 Fatalities and State GDP in Question
From Goldman-Sachs today:
Source: Goldman-Sachs, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” June 13, 2020.
Guest Contribution: “The cost of Coronavirus Uncertainty in Europe: the High Returns to Clear Policy Plans “
Today, we’re fortunate to have Giovanni Pellegrino (Aarhus University), Federico Ravenna (Danmarks Nationalbank, University of Copenhagen, HEC Montreal, CEPR) and Gabriel Zullig (Danmarks Nationalbank, University of Copenhagen) as guest contributors. The views expressed represent those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent those of Danmarks Nationalbank , or any other institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Guest Contribution: “How the Coronavirus Crisis is Affecting Japanese and American Businesses: Evidence from the Stock Market”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Guest Contribution: “How Has COVID-19 Already Impacted Small Businesses”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Rob Fairlie (UC Santa Cruz).