From FT today, “Economists predict at least two US interest rate rises by end of 2023”:
Forecasting in Unprecedented Times
Consider the plight of a time series econometrician who wants to do a quick and dirty forecast for the next year, conditioned only on past information on GDP. One might end up with series in the graph below.
Judy Shelton on Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
From the Independent Institute, “The Moment Janet Yellen Moved for ‘Greasing the Wheels’ with Inflation”, discussing a 1996 meeting of the Fed:
Hendrix and Noland, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang”
From Cullen Hendrix and Marcus Noland at Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang” – Economic Policy Responses:
Wisconsin GDP in Q1
Wisconsin GDP has recovered largely in line with the US, but the bifurcation in economy remains.
Business Cycle Indicators as of June 27
Personal income and consumption for May were released last week, as well as the April manufacturing and trade industry sales figure.
Assessing Market Forecasts of Inflation (at 5 Year Horizon)
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev at the Peterson Institute for International Economics have an interesting article on whether economists or markets are better at forecasting. They write:
GDP by State, 2021Q1
BEA released figures today. From the release:
Trade Sanctions on Use of Forced Labor in China
From Reuters:
Lumber Prices
A wild ride for futures means…