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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Inaugural FT-IGM survey of academic macroeconomists

From FT today, “Economists predict at least two US interest rate rises by end of 2023”:

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This entry was posted on June 30, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

Consider the plight of a time series econometrician who wants to do a quick and dirty forecast for the next year, conditioned only on past information on GDP. One might end up with series in the graph below.

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This entry was posted on June 30, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Judy Shelton on Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity

From the Independent Institute, “The Moment Janet Yellen Moved for ‘Greasing the Wheels’ with Inflation”, discussing a 1996 meeting of the Fed:

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Hendrix and Noland, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang”

From Cullen Hendrix and Marcus Noland at Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang” – Economic Policy Responses:

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin GDP in Q1

Wisconsin GDP has recovered largely in line with the US, but the bifurcation in economy remains.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of June 27

Personal income and consumption for May were released last week, as well as the April manufacturing and trade industry sales figure.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Assessing Market Forecasts of Inflation (at 5 Year Horizon)

Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev at the Peterson Institute for International Economics have an interesting article on whether economists or markets are better at forecasting. They write:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP by State, 2021Q1

BEA released figures today. From the release:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Trade Sanctions on Use of Forced Labor in China

From Reuters:

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This entry was posted on June 23, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Lumber Prices

A wild ride for futures means…

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This entry was posted on June 22, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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