Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Christopher Otrok, Sam B. Cook Professor of Economics, University of Missouri, and Research Fellow, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. The views expressed here are our own and do not reflect the official opinions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.
Treasury Secretary Designate Yellen on the Dollar
From Reuters today:
“The value of the U.S. dollar and other currencies should be determined by markets. Markets adjust to reflect variations in economic performance and generally facilitate adjustments in the global economy”, Yellen will say, if asked about the incoming administration’s dollar policy, according to the report.
“Is a Dollar Crash Coming?”
That’s the title of a symposium in The International Economy, with Anders Åslund, Scott K.H. Bessent, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Jill Carlson, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Menzie D. Chinn, Lorenzo Codogno, Tim Congdon, Marek Dabrowski, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Heiner Flassbeck, Takeshi Fujimaki, Joseph E. Gagnon, James K. Galbraith, James E. Glassman, Michael Hüther, Richard Jerram, Gary N. Kleiman, Anne O. Krueger, Mickey D. Levy, Thomas Mayer, Jim O’Neill, Adam S. Posen, Holger Schmieding, Derek Scissors, Mark Sobel, Makoto Utsumi, and Chen Zhao.
Economic Report of the President, 2021
Guest Contribution: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Financial Markets”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
The Outlook: WSJ January Survey
Upgrades in forecasted growth rates, largely due to expectations of widespread vaccinations.
Interpreting Spreads
Here is a graph of two spreads oft-cited: (1) a term spread, the 10 year-3 month spread, and (2) a spread between a nominal rate and a real rate, the 10 year Treasury yield and 10 year TIPS yield, commonly interpreted as the inflation breakeven. (I leave the credit spread for another post.)
Spreads and Risk over the Past Week (and Months)
I’ve been amazed at how little the last week’s political turmoil has shown up in financial markets. The only thing that seems to have moved anything is the apparent control of the Senate moving to the Democrats.
The Strong Dollar Debate, Yet Again
(Somewhat repetitive of a 2007 post…)
“Richard Cooper, cutting-edge economist”
That’s from the title of a Harvard Gazette article today:
Most economists live in the world of theory, using careful calculations to predict the future. But Richard N. Cooper believed theory couldn’t tell the whole story when it came to solving real-world problems, particularly when they involve the whole world — which he amply demonstrated after a global recession in the 1970s.