Steven Kopits writes:
We might expect a massive stimulus coupled with a major loss of jobs to lead to an explosion of the trade deficit, which it has.
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In extremis, such a stimulus might even generate record levels of goods imports, which it has.
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This record level of imports would result in record levels of shipping, which it has, with LA in-bound port traffic running about 15% above its prior peak. (Let me add here that US shale oil production has meant that the historical US trade deficit in oil has disappeared. Since oil is imported chiefly through Houston and a couple of other ports — but not LA — the increase in port traffic is showing up in merchandise, not oil, imports. That is, imports are going to cargo ports like Long Beach and LA.) Such ports may not be equipped to handle surges of cargo imports well above historical peaks.
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At the same time, a loss of jobs accompanied by record stimulus might lead to weak exports, which it has.
