See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being in a recession, but opines that what Americans “feel” is a better definition.
Downgrades and CDS
Bessent says Moody’s downgrade is a lagging indicator…
Thoughts on Soft vs. Hard Data
Reader Bruce Hall decries focus on “soft data” (read: it’s all the media’s fault!)
Republicans’ Economic Outlook Darken
Preliminary results indicate that this development precedes “Liberation Day”:
GDP on a Lower Trajectory – Survey of Professional Forecasters
Michigan Survey Implies a Catastrophic Collapse of Fed Inflation Credibility
NY Fed survey doesn’t [corrected per Gorodnichenko- median NY Fed does not, but mean would]
Economic Sentiment Continues to Fall as Inflation Expectations Climb Further
Sentiment (prelminary) below consensus.
Graphs from “Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
New conditions, not new approaches. From my presentation (PDF) yesterday for MCFR:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: April Manufacturing Production and Real Retail Sales Down
Both production and sales below m/m consensus.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May; Manufacturing Contracts in “Liberation” Month
Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises.