With the release of the IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, key indicators tracked by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) continue to show mixed behavior. Monthly GDP declined in November (joining personal income ex.-transfers in decline):
On “Intimidation” (and a very short, truncated history on the Chinese diaspora in America)
At the risk of excessive navel-gazing, a commentary on what responsibilities Asian-Americans have in calling out China. An Econbrowser reader writes:
[D]o I think Menzie is a China apologist? No. Do I think Menzie is thoroughly intimidated by China? Absolutely.
But he is hardly alone in this.
Nevertheless, there is a bigger picture. If China follows trend, if this trend leads to open conflict with the US, then Menzie will regret not having taken a more public and determined stand to argue for democracy in China. As I have stated: Our best hope for China’s peaceful rise to superpower status is the rapid development of that country’s internal democracy.
Observations on “Censorship”
An Econbrowser reader, defending the use of the term “China virus” instead of the Covid-19 term, writes:
Wisconsin during the Trade War
The national trade deficit is larger than when Trump took office. We don’t know for sure the gap between Wisconsin goods exports and imports. We do know the gap between exports of goods originating in Wisconsin, and imports with destinations in Wisconsin, as recorded in the Customs data.
The Current Administration’s Current Official Economic Forecast
Illustrated (red squares):
The Year in Review, 2020: Hanging on for Dear Life (and Rational Policymaking)
I remember once seeing a book on a used bookstore shelf in Washington DC (Second Story Books?) years ago entitled “Great Public Policy Disasters” or something like that. Over this year, I’ve been thinking that one could write an entire book series entitled “Great Public Policy Disasters of 2020” . With that in mind, here’s the year in review:
Guest Contribution: “The Year 2020 in Three Phrases”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and The Guardian.
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of December 30
Weekly Covid-19 fatalities are falling according to CDC estimates, although CDC determined fatalities are consistently below alternatively sourced estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities have been revised upward.
Some Economic Data Release Conventions
When I first started working in the government, I was often confused by the many different ways in which economic data is reported. Now, thirty years into teaching economics – -particularly international economics – – I still have to help out my students when they venture outside of the safe world of textbooks to read official reports from different governments and institutions. So, here’s an incomplete (but hopefully helpful) primer on some conventions used in relevant government releases:
Protectionist High Water Mark?
“… the quick fix, of the “countervailing tariff,” “voluntary” restraints, and the like, will only mean higher prices for consumers in the short run, and greater distress in the long term. “Reciprocity” … notwithstanding, protectionism will only prove a temporary, and costly, palliative for inefficient industries, in a world populated by NICs, MICs and [Advanced Developing Countries].”