Chad Bown, US-China Phase 1 Tracker:
No matter how you look at it – use data on China’s imports or US exports – through November, China purchased only slightly more than half of the US goods Trump pledged it would buy over all of 2020 under his Phase One deal.
Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down 100 thousand, contra +81 Bloomberg consensus, even worse than GS and DB.
Goldman Sachs prediction for December NFP is -50 thousand, and Deutsche Bank is -75 thousands. The current Bloomberg consensus of +71 thousand (down from +100 thousand on the 6th).
To a 14 year high (in absolute terms, not as a share of GDP). Shrinkage in US-China deficit stalls.
Weekly Covid-19 fatalities are falling according to CDC estimates, but those numbers are likely to be revised upward; going from last week’s release to this week’s, excess fatalities have been revised upward drastically. Unofficial estimates indicate a resumption of the upward movement in fatalities to a new peak (18690/week for week ending 1/2/2021, averaging 2670 deaths/day).
ADP at -123 thousand vs. expected +88 thousand.
Stock, currency and bond markets respond (up, up, yield up) on news of likely Democratic control of the Senate
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Daniel Soques (University of North Carolina Wilmington). The views presented represent those of the authors alone and do not reflect the views of their respective institutions.
With the release of the IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, key indicators tracked by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) continue to show mixed behavior. Monthly GDP declined in November (joining personal income ex.-transfers in decline):
At the risk of excessive navel-gazing, a commentary on what responsibilities Asian-Americans have in calling out China. An Econbrowser reader writes:
[D]o I think Menzie is a China apologist? No. Do I think Menzie is thoroughly intimidated by China? Absolutely.
But he is hardly alone in this.
Nevertheless, there is a bigger picture. If China follows trend, if this trend leads to open conflict with the US, then Menzie will regret not having taken a more public and determined stand to argue for democracy in China. As I have stated: Our best hope for China’s peaceful rise to superpower status is the rapid development of that country’s internal democracy.