and expectations for May…
Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021
April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Inflation Squeeze on Wages?
Relative compression vis a vis recent past (not controlling for composition), but still up since the onset of the pandemic.
Wisconsin’s Recovery: Employment, Coincident Index, GDP, Personal Income
In progress, but incomplete.
Steel Tariffs and Iron/Steel Prices
The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were a bad idea during the Trump administration. They’re still a bad idea.
A Logged Look at Bitcoin
If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.
Firm Inflation Expectations – a New Survey
From a new working paper by Candia, Coibion and Gorodnichenko:
Enhanced Unemployment Benefits in Wisconsin and Disincentives
From WPR, “Top Wisconsin Republicans Call For Ending Enhanced Unemployment Benefits”:
Two of the Legislature’s top Republicans say they’ll pass a bill that would cut off federal unemployment insurance benefits that were added during the COVID-19 pandemic, saying they’re no longer needed and they’re making it harder for businesses to find workers.
Wisconsin Employment in April
Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 4.7% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02, vs. 5.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD yesterday).