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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations

and expectations for May…

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021

April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Squeeze on Wages?

Relative compression vis a vis recent past (not controlling for composition), but still up since the onset of the pandemic.

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This entry was posted on May 27, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin’s Recovery: Employment, Coincident Index, GDP, Personal Income

In progress, but incomplete.

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This entry was posted on May 26, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Steel Tariffs and Iron/Steel Prices

The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were a bad idea during the Trump administration. They’re still a bad idea.

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This entry was posted on May 25, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

A Logged Look at Bitcoin

If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.

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This entry was posted on May 24, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Firm Inflation Expectations – a New Survey

From a new working paper by Candia, Coibion and Gorodnichenko:

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This entry was posted on May 23, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Enhanced Unemployment Benefits in Wisconsin and Disincentives

From WPR, “Top Wisconsin Republicans Call For Ending Enhanced Unemployment Benefits”:

Two of the Legislature’s top Republicans say they’ll pass a bill that would cut off federal unemployment insurance benefits that were added during the COVID-19 pandemic, saying they’re no longer needed and they’re making it harder for businesses to find workers.

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This entry was posted on May 21, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Employment in April

Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 4.7%  relative to NBER peak in 2020M02, vs. 5.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD yesterday).

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This entry was posted on May 21, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

More Nonsense

Judy Shelton talks crypto:

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This entry was posted on May 20, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Sentiment Declines
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  • Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth
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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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