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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators

Employment figures were released today, showing continued growth. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

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This entry was posted on June 4, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Policy Rules and Forward Guidance Following the Covid-19 Recession”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.


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This entry was posted on June 3, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Steel Employment and Production

Employment and production were declining before the pandemic. March employment is roughly the same as three years ago. Production is down 7.8% in April vs. three years prior.

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This entry was posted on June 2, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Debt Dynamics, and the Real Interest Rate

Debt-to-GDP dynamics are described by this expression.

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This entry was posted on June 2, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of June 1

Monthly GDP figures were released by IHS-Markit today, showing a rebound in April. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

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This entry was posted on June 1, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Sixty Years of Money, GDP and the Price Level

Looks like this:

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This entry was posted on June 1, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Borrowing Costs for the US Treasury: May 2021

As of May 2021, the nominal 10 year Treasury rate is 1.6%. The real rate is -0.9%.

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This entry was posted on May 31, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Output Gaps and Interest Rates – Survey of Professional Forecasters vs. Troika

The White House economic assumptions (based on February data) released today in the FY ’22 budget imply full employment output at year’s end, contrasting with 1.4% using Survey of Professional Forecasters (from May)

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Statistics and the Pandemic”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on May 29, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations

and expectations for May…

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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