June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from over one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
From Reuters today, “Hopes for trade breakthrough fade as China cancels U.S. farm visits”:
A U.S.-China trade deal appeared elusive on Friday after Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to farms in Montana and Nebraska amid two days of ongoing talks in Washington.
Modern asset-based models are based upon fundamentals such as money stocks, incomes, interest and inflation rates mattering. But the dollar — in which safe assets like Treasurys are denominated — is special in that risk also matters.
Why you should attend this UW Economics JPGI talk by Kenneth Rogoff tomorrow (Wednesday) at 4:30 pm:
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting.
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is a commonplace rule of thumb for defining recessions, but the original conception of recessions is not captured by this simple definition. As some people have disagreed with my description (see [1]), it might be useful to review how recessions are defined in the US (with associated drawbacks), and in other economies.
That’s the title of a new paper by Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo:
In anticipation of Jim Hamilton‘s talk this Wednesday, I’m going to talk a little about recessions in today’s lecture. Here are some data to keep in mind:
Prob(recessiont) = -1.925 – 16.10 freightgrowtht + ut
McFadden R2 = 0.51 NObs = 235 (2000M01-2019M07). Coefficients significant at 5% msl bold.
