Downward Revision in GDP and Consumption Outlook

Goldman Sachs observes, over the weekend:

The US has experienced a dramatic resurgence of Covid over the last two weeks, with confirmed daily new cases surpassing 50,000. In response, officials have paused or reversed reopening in states containing more than half the population.

A combination of tighter state restrictions and voluntary social distancing is already having a noticeable impact on economic activity. States with the most severe deterioration in the Covid situation saw declines in consumer and workplace activity at the end of June that will likely continue into July, and activity flattened in other states.

The healthy rebound in consumer services spending seen since mid-April now appears likely to stall in July and August as authorities impose further restrictions to contain virus spread. The ongoing recovery in manufacturing and construction should be largely unaffected, however.

Continue reading

Even Before the Recession, Employment Was Slowing

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data show the divergence from the establishment survey measurment of total employment in the months before the peak.

Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (red), from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (blue), both calculated as 12 month log differences. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

NBER identified peak is 2020M02.

Declining Mobility in TX, FL

From Wells Fargo’s mobility trends report, today (for Google data thru 27th, Apple data thru 29th):

These types of data are used to infer economic activity at the regional level. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.

Continued Recovery in June (II)

ADP releases its figure for private nonfarm payroll. Bloomberg consensus is for BLS is for an increase.

The obvious question: will July register an increase, as restrictions are re-instituted?