Net impact on employment from Trump’s trade war and associated retaliation:
Source: Flaaen and Pierce, 2019.
Pictures from the Steel Trade War
Raw steel production is down, as is primary metal employment.
Is California in Recession? (Part XVIII)
November employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from two years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Guest Contribution: “How Are Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition Related?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by N.R. Ramirez-Rondan and Marco E. Terrones (Universidad del Pacifico).
Guest Contribution: “Six Practical Proposals for Progressive Tax Policy”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate December 17th.
The return of the Fed’s balance-sheet policies
The Federal Reserve has increased the size of its balance sheet by a third of a trillion dollars over the last 15 weeks, returning to tools that a short while ago we thought it had abandoned. But the Fed’s current goal in these operations is quite different from what we had seen earlier.
Continue reading
Guest Contribution: “The Role of Network Effects in the International Transmission of US Monetary Policy”
Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution by Stéphane Dees (Banque de France and Univ. Bordeaux) and Alessandro Galesi (Banco de España). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banque de France, Banco de España, or the Eurosystem.
Madison, WI, December 17th – A March
To Impeach Trump
© Lauren Justice for The New York Times. Protesters gathered outside the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wis.
Source: Vigdor, “Protesters Clamor for Trump’s Impeachment on Eve of House Votes,” NYT, 17 December 2019.
In Defense of Applying Cointegration Testing and Error Correction Models
In honor of Mark Thoma’s retirement, let me discuss the relevance of one of his papers (coauthored with Tim Duy) regarding the usefulness of imposing cointegrating restrictions.
Guest Contribution: “The currency composition of foreign exchange reserves”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University) and Robert N. McCauley (formerly Bank for International Settlements). The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are or were affilliated with.