From Wisconsin DWD this afternoon:
[T]he data shows that Wisconsin total non-farm jobs decreased by 14,700 and 2,700 private-sector jobs in the month of October.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate for October was 5.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in September.
How would you answer Question 2?
With October industrial production reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
Halfway through November, TIPS 10 year at -0.876% and ten year adjusted for median expected inflation (from November Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today) at -1.264%.
Baseline scenario is for continued — albeit moderating growth — at least according to the WSJ November survey. However, the reality of rapidly ascending Covid-19 caseload, hospitalization, and fatality rates may force a quick rethink. From The Hill today:
Rising government debt-to-GDP ratios should be viewed in the context of borrowing costs. Below, three-and-a-half decades of ten year Treasury yields.
The below is a republication of a post from July 19, 2019 entitled “What Does Judy Shelton Believe GDP Growth and Inflation Are in 2019?” in response to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel’s invocation of cloture on the nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
In a 2015 Cato Institute session, Fed Board Nominee Judy Shelton discusses whether to trust or not official GDP and inflation statistics (she says no — see 1:07:07) (h/t Sam Bell).
No acceleration in growth rates, but GDP level higher relative to October survey; few see a true “V”, or a true “W”.
TPM has the list of transition team members. Below I reproduce those involving in economics.
Can we settle on a verdict on whether the trade war saved manufacturing? One way is to examine how the manufacturing sector fared.