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Implications of a “No Recovery Package” Outcome
From Deutsche Bank on Sunday:
In the US, fiscal uncertainty is a major issue. As outlined above, we now assume that significant further support will not be forthcoming until after the election. The resulting drop in income support for households is already beginning to depress activity and we see GDP growth slowing to near zero in Q4 as consumer spending slides. Growth will pick up in Q1 with some post-election fiscal support.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment vs. Trend, Pre-Covid-19
Slowing even before the pandemic…
CBO on the Macro Impact of Pandemic Recovery Packages Thus Far
On Friday, the CBO released The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output.
Guest Contribution: “The Trade War Has Cost 175,000 Manufacturing Jobs and Counting”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Lydia Cox (Harvard University) and Kadee Russ (University of California, Davis), both formerly on the staff of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Some High Frequency Indicators
Source: DB, “Covid-19 impact tracker,” US Economic Perspectives, 17 September 2020.
State Employment Relative to Year Ago
The map below shows the geographic variation in the decline in nonfarm payroll employment relative to August 2019. Nationwide, the decline is 6.8% (NFP growth was trending at 1.6% up to February 2020, 1.3% up to August 2019).
Wisconsin Employment in August
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
No Longer Does Sweden Beat US in Covid-19 Deaths per Capita
And the US is fast approaching Italy’s record.
Covid-19 Fatality Rates Rising Again
Not good news. Not that it was so great even before this.