The video of Jim Hamilton’s inaugural Juli Plant Grainger Institute lecture at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Economics is now up!

Click here for YouTube video.

Must see for anybody who is serious about critically reading the tea leaves regarding an incipient recession (Spoiler: As of 9/11, he was sceptical a recession had begun). Interesting conjecture about using holding period returns on Treasury securities of different maturities to isolate a expectations hypothesis of term structure component (my reading).

(Aside: for conventional wisdom, see my Econ 435 notes for Econ on EHTS/yield curve/recession prediction)

I moderated a discussion this morning with John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in which John shared his perspectives on monetary policy and the current economic outlook. You can watch on Youtube (conversation begins at 44 minutes in).

In August, an elevated economic policy uncertainty index was associated with an increasingly inverted yield curve. The measured Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index as of today is 582 (sure to be revised, but still…).

Continue reading →

56% at noon Pacific today, according to PredictIt:

That is, articles of impeachment approved within the next three months.

Click on above image to go to document. And a reading, below:

Continue reading →

That’s an important new Economic Brief by Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond:

Japan plans to raise its national consumption tax next week from 8 percent to 10 percent. Some commentators and economists have blamed previous consumption tax increases for causing recessions in 1997 and 2014, but little statistical analysis has been published to support or refute such claims. This Economic Brief  highlights new evidence that significant changes in Japan’s household consumption behavior did in fact coincide with the 1997 tax hike.

This issue is important as Japan is on the cusp of raising its consumption tax in just a few days.