Or, between identities vs. functions. Reader Corev comments:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May
April industrial production figures were released yesterday. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Inflation Expectations – Mid-May
Surveys indicate some acceleration, vis a vis last month.
CPI Inflation Rates, Month-on-Month
Headline vs. Trimmed vs. Sticky Price:
Interpreting the Labor Market
The employment surprise – demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday.
Guest Contribution: “The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Industrial Production”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
The Employment Surprise and Bond Yields
Given the employment surprise (NFP 266K actual vs. 978K expected, while GS forecasted 1300K), it would be remarkable if interest rates did not respond. Stock indices did drop, then recovered to pre-surprise trend. Five year bond yields did drop somewhat.
The Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators
April employment figures were released today, showing a marked slowdown in the labor market. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Market Based Inflation Expectations at 5 Year Horizon
The simple — conventionally reported — inflation breakeven calculation might be misleading.
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment in April
ADP private nonfarm change at 742K below consensus of 800K (Bloomberg).