It’s kind of limiting to look only at recessions as predicted by the yield curve. What about growth?

December coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.

Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]

The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the December employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred in 2017. However, growth has decelerated at the end of 2018.

Short term growth prospects are “baked in”, from the Walker/Vos/Fitzgeral regime. Interestingly, we have mixed signals from economic indicators (and no signal from some that are delayed — thanks, Trump!).

From NYT, “Foxconn Is Reconsidering Plan for Wisconsin Factory“:

Foxconn, the giant Taiwan-based company that announced plans for a $10 billion display-making factory in Wisconsin, now says it is rethinking the project’s focus because of “new realities” in the global marketplace.

Today, we are pleased to present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

Below are the peer-reviewed journal articles authored or co-authored by Stephen Moore, CNN “economic expert”:

This list might be incomplete.

I’m talking Stephen Moore. From CNN Business (1/24):