Manufacturing employment, exports declines. Employment release from DWD today.
Wisconsin under Trump Trade War 2.0
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A Man Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 Is Still Odds on Favorite for BLS Commissioner
It’s really a statement on our times.
Michigan Survey: Sentiment Down, Inflation Expectations Up
Preliminary readings for August. Not particularly good.
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial Production, Retail Sales
The picture as of today’s releases, with IP, retail sales below consensus.
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Shocker in PPI: 0.9% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus:
Business Cycle Indicators w/Monthly GDP
SP Global’s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3):
Additional Thoughts on EJ Antoni’s Nomination to BLS
Thanks to Paul Krugman for citing my brief paper on EJ Antoni’s 2022 recession claim, in “Hackification”, all in the cause of exposing the abuses of data now taking place.
“America in Recession since 2022? A Critique of Antoni-St. Onge”
“Trump’s pick for BLS commissioner suggests suspending the monthly jobs report”
From CNN today:
“Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,” he told Fox Business. “Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences.”
Import Sensitive CPI Components, Core PCE Nowcast Rise
From the CPI release today: