Responses to DoJ probe: An event study.
Bond Yields and Dollar and Odds on Powell
4 Replies
Gianluca Benigno: “Tariffs as National Security Tools”
“Talking Heads Are Missing Labor Market Strength”: Heritage Chief Economist
Wide Dispersion in Nowcasts and Tracking
GDPNow for Q4 at 5.1% is considerably higher than Goldman Sachs at 3.1%, and St. Louis Fed at essentially zero.
We Are Well and Truly F****ed: Fed Edition
From Bloomberg:
Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment: All Below Peak
From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP:
Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public, Trump 1.0, 2.0, and Biden
The graph says it all.
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Goods Exports under Trump 2.0
Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12.
Accelerating Deterioration in Manufacturing Employment, Post-“Liberation Day”
ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm:
The Average Effective Tariff Rate thru October
The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of cost increases in 2026: