From EJ Antoni, announcing on X, joining Truflation:
EJ Antoni on “Improving” Economic Statistics
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Torsten Slok’s (Slightly Late) Halloween Entry
Nowcasting the Core Price Level
CPI and PCE, as of 11/11, from Cleveland Fed:
Guessing NFP Growth
Even with the government shutdown’s imminent end, it may be a while before we get official readings on employment, maybe never for October’s household series. Here’s what I’ve cobbled together, using ADP data, and guesses for government employment:
SNB-TCD Workshop: “Globalization and the economics of the external sector”
The Swiss National Bank and International Macro at University College Dublin, in cooperation with the Journal of International Money and Finance, are holding a workshop in Zurich on Thursday, 14 November 2025:
Negative Equity, and Other Things to Worry About
I’m teaching a course entitled “The Financial System”, and as part of revising the course, I’m looking at trouble spots. Bill McBride at CR posted this interesting map:
Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes: Speculation
Shutdown?Tariff legality? Travel disruptions? SNAP disruption? Collapsing sentiment? Political uncertainty?
How Sensitive Is Economic Sentiment to News?
In 2025, it depends. Particularly if you are a Republican/Lean Republic — then it’s almost zero…
Expectations, Current Situation, Sentiment Decline to Near Record Low Levels
Yesterday, University of Michigan Survey consumer sentiment surprised on the downside, (50.3 vs. 53.0 Bloomberg consensus) along multiple dimensions, including assessments of the current situation (52.3 vs. 59.2 consensus) and expectations regarding the future (49.0 vs. 50.3 consensus); and is deteriorating over time.
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Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a unit coefficient, and adjusted R2 of 0.56, SER = 0.00087. The resulting nowcast is shown below.