EJ Antoni writes a letter to WaPo editors:
“that the Heritage Foundation has become a protectionist bivouac. Au contraire, Heritage has been, is, and will continue to be a bastion of free-market conservatism.”
With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser], recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions over time.
Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. That is somewhat higher than both the historical average growth and the value anticipated by many forecasters.
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From Bloomberg:
A survey:
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
A compilation:
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers: