The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast.
CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
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The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”
That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):
Sentiment Declines
Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence.
Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of Wisconsin NFP.
Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth
From the CPI release:
I Laughed and Laughed and Laughed
From the Hill oped, Sen. Mullin opines:
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Up.
“What New Have We Learned about US Dollar Dominance As a Reserve Currency?”
That’s the title of my keynote talk at the 27th INFER conference (Rome), an excellent exchange of ideas and comments on economics.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down 17% y/y.
Why We Teach International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Together
Or, why should a bunch of ICE agents running amok in a Hyundai-LG factory have an impact on trade policy uncertainty?