But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket:
Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% fm 21% pre-War
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“How energy prices figure into the Fed’s interest rate decisions”
From MarketPlace today with Justin Ho, Claudia Sahm and I comment.
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise
And are rising faster than in the last year under Biden.
Trump: “The straits are in great shape”
Brent approaches $100/bbl again, volatility keeps on rising, and Straits open end-April less than eve-odds.
Source: BBC.
QCEW, ADP and CPS Readings on NFP, Manufacturing Employment: Not as Rosie
We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series.
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Risk, Geopolitical Risk, Expected Inflation and Oil Volatility
EPU, VIX and GPR:
OBE: “Five Important Reasons Why the Trump Economy Is About To Really Blast Off”
From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago):
Hamilton Net Oil Price (Brent)
Using NYMEX futures for May, June:
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
NYMEX: