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Instantaneous Core Inflation
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“What New Have We Learned about US Dollar Dominance As a Reserve Currency?”
That’s the title of my keynote talk at the 27th INFER conference (Rome), an excellent exchange of ideas and comments on economics.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down 17% y/y.
Why We Teach International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Together
Or, why should a bunch of ICE agents running amok in a Hyundai-LG factory have an impact on trade policy uncertainty?
White House Tries to (Ineptly) Spin the Preliminary Benchmark Release
From the White House today:
Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Remember that the Preliminary Benchmark Revision is… Preliminary. While this is obvious, the implications are not necessarily so. In particular, if one is interested in measuring the actual number of jobs filled by both documented and undocumented workers, then one should understand that the preliminary revision will likely tend to undercount employment. That is because the main input into the preliminary revision is unemployment insurance data, which will tend to be lacking for undocumented workers.
Sound the Alarm: “White House Prepares Report Critical of Statistics Agency”
Be afraid, be very afraid. From the WSJ article:
“The Misuse of Statistics” Module in Stats Class [Extended]
Teaching statistics next semester, adding in this section, which I am tempted to name the “EJ Antoni Memorial Module”.
Clifford Winston: “Academic Toadies Impair Government Performance”
From The Regulatory Review, Clifford Winston:
The Trump Administration’s hiring of academics who compromise disciplinary standards threatens effective governance.
“Is the US already in recession?”
Tej Parikh in FT inquires.