What’s the chances? Depends on what the assumed recovery rate is. Here’s the cost of insurance.
Negative GDP Growth Is Delayed Again
In the Survey of Professional Forecasters median, but some still see it as likely). Here’s an interesting picture from the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters and GDPNow.
Federal Debt to GDP – When Did It Jump? Where Is It Going Now?
Regardless of gross or net, at par or market value, as a ratio to GDP or potential GDP, the answer is pretty obvious.
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-May
With the industrial production release showing an upside surprise (0.5% m/m vs -0.1 consensus) due to an outsized manufacturing increase (1% vs. 0.1% consensus), this is the picture of the series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), plus monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) formerly Macroeconomic Advisers.
Oil, Risk, and Price Pressures before Putin/Ukraine – using the Hamilton Filter
Reader Erik Poole suggests using the Hamilton filter instead of the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in assessing how much the CPI deviated from trend (recall, i noted that the CPI rose 2% vs trend at the same time as oil prices were elevated, before and after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine). I am (more than) happy to oblige.
Oil, Risk, and Price Pressures before Putin/Ukraine
A reader, critiquing the argument that the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine could not explain accelerating inflation before February 2022, observes “The surge of inflation happened well before the war.” I don’t think this characterization is entirely accurate, but in any case, oil prices rose before the so-called “Special Military Operation”, and price pressures showed up concurrently.
Real Median and Average Earnings, Normalized to NBER Peak
Reader JohnH provides a graph which seems to show lagging median wages. However, his graph is inexplicably normalized to 2020Q1, when the pandemic was underway. Here are the same series, log-normalized to NBER peak at 2019Q4.
1 mo-Fed funds Spread vs. 3 mo-1 mo Spread
Inversion on the second, as the first rises, as likelihood of June 1 default rises.
Timely Data on Median Wages
A reader complains that data on median real wages are not available on a timely basis (as compared to average real wages). What does this purportedly suppressed data indicate about the evolution of real wages?
Remembering Trump Economic Prognostications
In the wake of Mr. Trump’s admonition to Republicans to try out default, please recall: