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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty”

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Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison.

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This entry was posted on April 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts [updated w/adjusted GDPNow at -0.4%]

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The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.

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This entry was posted on April 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “How to Forecast a Recession”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter vesion, was published by Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on April 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor

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Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index stands at 2.83%.

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This entry was posted on April 23, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar

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Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close).

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This entry was posted on April 23, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down

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In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down  by 1.27 ppts. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports is on track to match WSJ forecast.

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This entry was posted on April 22, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)

From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”:

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This entry was posted on April 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”

An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin.

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This entry was posted on April 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”

Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans.

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This entry was posted on April 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No dearth of “current events” topics this term…

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This entry was posted on April 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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