Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
Policy Uncertainty Watch
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Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find that a 90 pt increase results in a bit less than 2% decline in employment at the one year horizon.
Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30.
Measured Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes
Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index.
GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth
At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)
Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor
Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses. Here’s the picture of confidence and sentiment, updated.
Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End
Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO
Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”
What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?
I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising.