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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

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Long Horizon Unbiasedness, Updated

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Some key interest differentials, through March:

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This entry was posted on May 12, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Different Measures of Consumer Inflation

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Official, chained, sticky price, 16% trimmed, and (for March) PCE deflator.

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This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation-Disinflation-Deflation Illustrated

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Yesterday, a discussion on Marketplace (w/Justin Ho) about how these terms fit together. In order to explain, consider a broad price index (e.g., CPI). Then one can illustrate these concepts graphically:

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This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Year-on-year vs. Month-on-month inflation for Headline, Core

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Dramatic plunge in headline CPI m/m inflation, but both headline and core surprise on upside.

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This entry was posted on May 11, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Adjusted Wages since the Pandemic

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Inflation exceeds average hourly earnings in the aggregate (private sector) and for Leisure and Hospitality Services (production and nonsupervisory). But they are still ahead of 2020M02 levels.

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This entry was posted on May 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guesstimating the US-Euro Area Core Inflation Differential in April

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April HICP numbers are out for the Euro Area. The US reports April CPI on Wednesday. Using the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast for April core (0.52% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.4%), we have the following picture.

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This entry was posted on May 8, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

US-Euro Area GDP Performance Pre/During Pandemic

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We now have Q1 GDP for the US and Euro Area. While US inflation as measured by CPI/HICP is higher than Euro Area (US core accelerating relative to EA by 0.7 ppts since the pandemic), US GDP growth has also been higher.

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This entry was posted on May 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Estimated Expected Inflation, and Oil

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Five year inflation breakevens have risen tightly with oil prices, while accounting for inflation and liquidity premia implies a more gradual albeit more steady increase in implied expected inflation.

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and Employment

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With the release of April employment (428K > 391K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”

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That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.

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This entry was posted on May 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Some Time Series Data on Mass Shootings
  • You Can Easily Get Low Inflation If You *Really* Want To
  • What Did Other Term Spreads Do? And What Does the US Spread Mean for Foreign Economic Activity?
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  • Guest Contribution: “Do Foreign Yield Curves Help Predict U.S. Recessions?”

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