That’s the title of an August 21,2024 article by Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni in the Boston Herald. Here’s an update of my August 28 post:
“The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
3 Replies
Egg Prices: Forecasts OBE?
Overtaken By Events:
EJ Antoni — Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 — Worries that Democrats Will Misunderstand GDPNow to Claim We’re Entering a Recession in 2025Q1
Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn’t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed’s GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone begins to realize our “growth” has just been debt-fueled gov’t spending
CROWE: “Will tariffs make Wisconsin rich?”
New working paper from Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, by Junjie Guo and Ananth Seshadri. Although they don’t give a one word answer, I’m pretty sure it would be “no”.
Uncertainty: Does It Matter?
From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.
Deepening Yield Curve Inversion at 6 months to 2 year Maturities since Inauguration Day
From 1/21/2025 to 3/10/2025, the 2 year constant maturity yield fell by 40 bps. Continue reading
Why Shouldn’t the Stock Market Be Crashing?
Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys:
GDPNow and Other Predictions
Accounting for gold, GDPNow for Q1 is at +0.4%.
“King Dollar” by Paul Blustein
In my IRL mailbox! Looking forward to reading… Continue reading
Economic Policy Uncertainty through 3/6/2025: Through the Roof!
The 7 day centered moving average is only exceeded by the April 2 and April 23 observations (the latter is “bleach”, if you are wondering).