We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series.
QCEW, ADP and CPS Readings on NFP, Manufacturing Employment: Not as Rosie
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Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Risk, Geopolitical Risk, Expected Inflation and Oil Volatility
EPU, VIX and GPR:
OBE: “Five Important Reasons Why the Trump Economy Is About To Really Blast Off”
From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago):
Hamilton Net Oil Price (Brent)
Using NYMEX futures for May, June:
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
NYMEX:
Uncertainty, Risk, Boots on the Ground?
In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket:
Market Expectations of Inflation
From Friday’s breakeven (5 year Treasury-TIPS):
So Tired of Winning: Gasoline Prices Today
From GasBuddy at 10:45am CT:
Strait of Hormuz De Facto Closure
Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction in 7 day moving average in traffic.