Here’s the outlook for GDP:
Recession Tales from the WSJ January Survey?
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Demographic Variations in Inflation Expectations
Not only is there variations across surveys of different groups, there are variations across groups within households.
Market Expectations on Fed funds, Spreads, Inflation post-CPI Release
Lower on Fed funds at February meeting. Don’t see much movement on spreads, despite talk of a pivot, and the possibility of a soft landing.
More on an Inflation Regime Switch
Is core CPI inflation in a new regime? Results using a Markov switching model (pioneered by James Hamilton).
December 2022 CPI
Here are the levels of headline and core CPI, versus forecasts and nowcasts.
CPI Headline, Core Inflation Nowcasts and Forecasts
Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1948-2023
It’s with great sadness that I pass on news of the passing of Barkley Rosser, Jr., a regular commenter on this weblog (under his own name!). He was among many things an intellect of extremely wide-ranging interests, from bubbles in exchange rates to the dynamics of transition economies, nonlinear dynamics and catastrophe theory to ecological economics.
Nowcasts as of January 10th
Nowcast from Atlanta Fed (GDPNow) plus tracking from GS out today.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap – November 2022”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
A Quick and Dirty Assessment: How Far Off Is the Establishment Survey Nonfarm Payroll Employment Series?
In the debate over whether the establishment survey nonfarm payroll employment series is seriously overestimating recent (particularly Q2) employment, a reader querulously asks “So you’re saying the Philly Fed screwed up its analysis and we should ignore its work? That’s your view?”. Short answer to first question: No. Short answer to the second question: see below.