Here’s the outlook for GDP:
Not only is there variations across surveys of different groups, there are variations across groups within households.
Lower on Fed funds at February meeting. Don’t see much movement on spreads, despite talk of a pivot, and the possibility of a soft landing.
Here are the levels of headline and core CPI, versus forecasts and nowcasts.
It’s with great sadness that I pass on news of the passing of Barkley Rosser, Jr., a regular commenter on this weblog (under his own name!). He was among many things an intellect of extremely wide-ranging interests, from bubbles in exchange rates to the dynamics of transition economies, nonlinear dynamics and catastrophe theory to ecological economics.
Nowcast from Atlanta Fed (GDPNow) plus tracking from GS out today.
In the debate over whether the establishment survey nonfarm payroll employment series is seriously overestimating recent (particularly Q2) employment, a reader querulously asks “So you’re saying the Philly Fed screwed up its analysis and we should ignore its work? That’s your view?”. Short answer to first question: No. Short answer to the second question: see below.