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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?

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ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?

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This entry was posted on July 2, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition

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From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”:

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This entry was posted on July 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices

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As per basic analysis of tariffs.  Data through June 26(!).

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This entry was posted on July 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey

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Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.

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This entry was posted on July 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty Spikes

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As of today:

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This entry was posted on June 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”

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Various observers (e.g. Furman) have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and tracking estimates of this indicator cast into doubt prospects for rapid growth.

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This entry was posted on June 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?

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There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and gold holdings through 2025Q1.

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CEA Unleashed!

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From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB:

$1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting deficit reduction from higher growth unleashed by enhanced deregulation and energy policies

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

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That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income excluding transfers also decline in May…

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Dollar Decline and Incipient Inflationary Pressures

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Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
  • Dispersion in GDP Nowcasts
  • Policy Uncertainty *before* 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico … and Rosie O’Donnell
  • Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
  • Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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