A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint.
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0
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Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
As of yesterday COB:
Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John Williamson at ShadowStats. Now it’s EJ Antoni at Heritage Foundation (who touts the use of Primerica’s everyday price index). But the American Institute for Economic Research’s “Everyday Price Index” (EPI) says otherwise (over the past year and a half).
Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
From the National Corn Growers Association:
U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together they account for about one-fourth of total U.S. agricultural export value. As such, a repeated tariff-based approach to addressing trade with China places a target on both U.S. soybeans and corn. Farmers and rural economies pay the price as a result.
Recession after the Election?
Charles Payne joins the recession camp.
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50.
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25:
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs. 34.2).