Readings exceeds expectations, m/m 0.6% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs -0.1% core).
Inflation in August
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Weekly Indicators of Economic Activity through September 3rd
Year-on-year, activity still seems to be increasing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a week ago (September 3rd):
Ukraine Military SitRep Sept 8th
From ISW, as of 9:30pm ET 9/8 (in reply to queries):
Nearly 45 Years of the Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate
Official vs. effective, real vs. nominal, bilateral vs. multilateral.
The EIA and Futures Outlook for Oil Prices
From the EIA’s Short Term Economic Outlook:
Inflation Breakevens: Common and Uncommon Shocks
Assuming unadjusted nominal-real yields are a good indicator of inflation expectations (see yesterday’s post for why maybe not), it’s interesting to see how market based inflation expectations have moved over the recent past (pre-today’s ECB decision):
Market Based Expectations of Five Year Ahead Inflation
It might be misleading to rely to heavily on simple inflation break even calculations, which show inflation over the next five years lower today than they were on the even of the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Data Compendium, Updated
Another update of The Data Will Set You Free , so you won’t go around quoting Zerohedge.
Euro Area GDP Nowcasts, Pre-NordStream Indefinite Shutdown
Natural gas futures surge as Gazprom announces shutdown. What were nowcasts indicating before this announcement? Nowcasts from Banca d’Italia via CEPR, Cascaldi-Garcia et al., and Woloszko/OECD.
Prediction Markets on Wisconsin Races
From PredictIt today: