Some key interest differentials, through March:
Official, chained, sticky price, 16% trimmed, and (for March) PCE deflator.
Dramatic plunge in headline CPI m/m inflation, but both headline and core surprise on upside.
Inflation exceeds average hourly earnings in the aggregate (private sector) and for Leisure and Hospitality Services (production and nonsupervisory). But they are still ahead of 2020M02 levels.
We now have Q1 GDP for the US and Euro Area. While US inflation as measured by CPI/HICP is higher than Euro Area (US core accelerating relative to EA by 0.7 ppts since the pandemic), US GDP growth has also been higher.
Five year inflation breakevens have risen tightly with oil prices, while accounting for inflation and liquidity premia implies a more gradual albeit more steady increase in implied expected inflation.
With the release of April employment (428K > 391K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.
That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.