Just updated/cleaned and extended the survey and forward rate data used in Chinn and Frankel (2019) (discussed in this post). Here are preliminary results regard forward rate bias, both pre- and post-crisis.
Data Sources [Updated]
[Updated to include Corev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] Recently, in response to my posting a graph of the most recent nonfarm payroll data, Reader CoRev wrote:
Can you provide the raw data used?
This request came despite the fact that the graph states explicitly:
I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth! [Updated]
[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trend 4/16/2019] Reader JBH writes:
“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”
Why Is the Structural Budget Deficit Blowing Up Since Trump?
The structural, or cyclically adjusted, budget balance has been deteriorating. In accounting terms, what’re the drivers?
When the Textbook Is Right: Implications of the Trump Fiscal/Trade Regime
Today we learned that through March, the Federal budget deficit was 15% larger than the corresponding point in the last fiscal year — as expected given a not particularly stimulative tax cut (so much for tax cuts paying for themselves, as Stephen Moore claimed) and the ending of spending restraints. The dollar remains at elevated levels, as interest rates have risen. The trade deficit, excluding petroleum, continues to deteriorate. As I explained to my macro class today… it’s all textbook (notes).
Trade Policy Uncertainty and World Uncertainty
If measured world uncertainty shocks cause decelerating economic growth, then Trump will be partly responsible for the global slowdown the IMF is forecasting.
Is California in Recession? (Part XVI)
February coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from slightly over a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the Q3 GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
Guest Contribution: “Global Growth Forecasts Shift Downward—What’s Behind the Numbers and Why It Matters”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Enrique Martínez-García (Senior Reserach Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. He acknowledges the contributions of Valerie Grossman, Michael Morris, Amro Shohoud, and Mark A. Wynne in preparing these comments.
Don Luskin Speaks: On Trump’s Fed Nominees
Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics, said: “Trump is holding the Fed accountable, and as the man who appoints Fed governors, that is entirely appropriate.” (CNBC)
Why Hasn’t the Incipient Trump-Xi Deal Shown Up in Soybean Futures?
(In honor of reader CoRev), soybean futures for May…