Has spending on international travel to and tourism in the US dropped more than expected based on world GDP and the value of the dollar? Yes.
Guest Contribution: “Bill Nordhaus & Paul Romer, Nobel Prize winners”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
The Tourist “Trump Slump”
As international tourist arrivals have risen globally, those for the US have declined, as noted here.
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
Taxes announced, proposed, on Chinese imported goods. Or, shoot yourself in the foot edition.
“So China is now paying us billions of dollars in tariffs”
How does a tariff work? A tariff is a tax on imported goods, so if a Chinese good is sold to an American, the American literally has to pay the tax.
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Guest Contribution: “Explaining weak investment growth after the Great Recession: a macro-panel analysis”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Ines Buono and Sara Formai (Banca d’Italia) summarizing their chapter published in the book International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis edited by L. Ferrara, I. Hernando and D. Marconi. The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of their respective institutions.
The Mini-Recession of 2015-16?
Neil Irwin at the NYT has an interesting article on the localized recession in 2016. One conclusion he makes:
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JP Morgan Chase: “U.S.-China endgame involving 25 percent U.S. tariffs on all Chinese goods in 2019”
That’s according to Bloomberg.
Learning from History and Modeling: Chinese Trade Retaliation Choices
An interesting symposium in the 2nd Quarter 2018 issue of Choices, published by the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, deals with the impact of Chinese trade retaliation aimed against US agricultural exports.
And Back in Fiscal-Land
The FY2019 projected deficit balloons, as the estimated “dynamic” effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act prove minor (quelle suprise!)
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