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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Intraday PredictIt Probability of Recession Hits 46%

Hit that value earlier today, before dropping to 42% (recession in Trump’s first term, that is)

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Market Assessment of Prospects for Resolution of the US-China Trade Dispute by September 2020

Going from August 22rd to 23rd,  front month futures dropped 12-6; the August 2020 futures price (which are an unbiased predictor of one year ahead spot prices) was down 8-4. Hence, farmers should prepare for a long, tough, period of self-inflicted (by the administration) damage.

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Prediction Markets on Recession by January 2021

PredictIt, accessed 4pm Pacific today:

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Who’s Forecasting a (Technical*) Recession?

I keep on hearing that economists are lousy at forecasting, citing the An, Jalles, and Loungani (2018) analysis. Recently, we heard Larry Kudlow claim that nobody was predicting a recession in December 2007, when he was dismissing the possibility. Without disputing the consensus is lousy at detecting turning points in real time, we can check if all economists are.

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision: NFP

Down 501K in March.  Private NFP down 514K.

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This entry was posted on August 21, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation of Trump Induced Dollar Appreciation

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This entry was posted on August 20, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It

NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt

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This entry was posted on August 19, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Probability If the Rest of August Is Like the First Half

…using plain vanilla 10yr-3mo probit regression, over 1986M01-2019M08 period, using data shown below in Figure 1

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This entry was posted on August 18, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession”

Surprisingly, that’s not a quote from Larry Kudlow on today’s news shows. Rather that is then Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008. Just to remind people, that is 5 months after the recession start determined by NBER. Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 18, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin drop, as US manufacturing employment rises.

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This entry was posted on August 17, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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