Remember when Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni posted on X this graph?
NBER BCDC and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators for January
In the first set, industrial production continues to rise (as did employment). In the second set, while civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept rose, manufacturing output flat, and real retails sales fell noticeably.
Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.
Food Prices – CPI (at home), PPI
Not apparently going down:
Douglas Irwin in WSJ “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense”
From WSJ today:
Inflation Surprises Illustrated
For CPI and PPI vis a vis Bloomberg consensus:
Eggs Retail up 18%, PPI 32% Month-on-Month(!)
PPI figure on seasonally adjusted by author data. NSA m/m change is 36.5% (log differences).
Egg Prices in January — $4.95/Dozen Grade A, Large
Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet.
Egg Prices – A Continued Upward March?
Tomorrow, we’ll get a reading on January egg prices at the consumer level. With futures prices at about $5.2 in December and $6.65 in January, I’d guess retail egg prices will have gone up. Futures are at $7.65 so far in February.
Year-Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations in January: 3%-3.3%
From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed SoFIE: