On July 9, 2018, about 14 months ago, reader CoRev wrote:
Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.
Hah, hah, hah, hah! Time to look at prices relative to March 23, 2018, when Trump announced imposing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods…
In August, an elevated economic policy uncertainty index was associated with an increasingly inverted yield curve. The measured Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index as of today is 582 (sure to be revised, but still…).
56% at noon Pacific today, according to PredictIt:
That is, articles of impeachment approved within the next three months.
That’s the title of my October 18th Global Hot Spots talk, sponsored by the Wisconsin Foundation and Alumni Association (Fluno Center, 1:30-2:30).
Business cycle indicators mixed, nowcasts overall sideways, manufacturing down.
That’s an important new Economic Brief by Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond:
Japan plans to raise its national consumption tax next week from 8 percent to 10 percent. Some commentators and economists have blamed previous consumption tax increases for causing recessions in 1997 and 2014, but little statistical analysis has been published to support or refute such claims. This Economic Brief highlights new evidence that significant changes in Japan’s household consumption behavior did in fact coincide with the 1997 tax hike.
This issue is important as Japan is on the cusp of raising its consumption tax in just a few days.
Case-Shiller through July, Zillow through August.
Figure 1: Case-Shiller 20 city home price index (blue, left log scale), Zillow forecast of Case-Shiller August value (blue +, left log scale), and Zillow single-family home prices (brown, right log scale). Source: S&P via FRED, Zillow, BLS, and author’s calculations.
As Calculated Risk notes, Zillow makes predictions for the Case-Shiller index. They forecast the August 2019 m/m growth rate (not annualized) in the 20 city composite at -0.1% (roughly -1.2% on an annualized basis). The forecast is shown in Figure 1 as a “+”.
New home sales depict a much more optimistic picture, as Calculated Risk discusses.
Interesting to see how market prices (Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?) jumped, as of 8am Pacific today, as recorded by PredictIt:
PredictIt at 11am Pacific today:
