Do they matter?
Continue readingEmployment Estimates in the Run-up to the 2001 Recession
Employment Release: We Are Now Back to the 2016 Stochastic Trend
Louisiana’s Economic Progress since 2005
It’s striking. GDP correlates with oil in recent years, but not always, so why didn’t the magic of Jindalnomics work?
Continue readingWill Dave Brat Do More Damage in Academia than in Congress?
Brat to Liberty University…
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “New Year questions about the economic outlook”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Continue readingIs Housing the Business Cycle, 2019?
In 2007, Ed Leamer presented “Housing is the business cycle” at Jackson Hole. In 2018, Leamer himself doesn’t think a recession is imminent, but the following graph certainly gives one pause for thought.
Continue readingHappy New Year!
Figure 1: Baker Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty index, centered 7 day moving average (gray, left scale), and ten year – three month Treasury spread, % (blue, right scale) and ten year – two year spread, % (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, FRED and author’s calculations.
The Year in Review, 2018: Blowhards at Bay?
Last year’s recap was subtitled “Fighting against the normalization of lying”. At least this year, lies are called lies. Now it’s time to shun the liars, and relegate them to where they belong.
Continue readingTreasury Spreads and Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty for 2018
A correlation shows up in the last month or so: