In the likely event that Mexico does not provide the funds to build “a beautiful big wall” on our southern border, will Mr. Trump declare a national emergency and redirect funds? Mr. Trump has mentioned diverting monies from Puerto Rico recovery.
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probability”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
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Guest Contribution: “On the euro’s 20th birthday, Draghi’s tribute perpetuates long-refuted myths”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.
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Term Spreads and Policy Uncertainty in Perspective
The combination of yield curve inversion and high uncertainty is the exception, rather than the rule.
Continue readingSo Tired of Winning: US-China Trade Edition
Classes are about to start, so time to assemble slides on the trade outlook. I put together this graph of US goods exports to and imports from China (would’ve been through November, but for the Federal government shutdown – Jan 8 was release date). Please help me see the victory Mr. Trump keeps on talking about.
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “All you need to know about the drivers of capital flows”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, economist at the IMF. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.
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“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”
Recession Indicators Reported as of 1/19/2019
I focus on the series highlighted by the NBER’s business cycle dating committee (BCDC).
Continue readingUS Recession Probability – Term Spread+EPU Model
Laurent Ferrara asks what’s the probability of a US recession in 12 months if one augments an utterly standard 10yr-3mo term structure model with US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis…
Continue readingIs California in Recession? (Part XIII)
December employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Continue readingGoing by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]