[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] I have repeated requests for raw data used in this post, part of which is plotted in this graph. Reader CoRev writes:
…Menzie has admitted he mis-attributed his full range of sources used, and has yet to provide ALL the data he used.
This is not true. I didn’t admit mis-attribution. All I can conclude is that there is some confusion over terms.
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Virginie Coudert (Banque de France and CEPII), Cécile Couharde (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre), Carl Grekou (CEPII and EconomiX-CNRS), and Valérie Mignon (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre, and CEPII). This blog post reflects the opinions of the authors and does not necessarily express the views of the institutions to which they belong.
Just updated/cleaned and extended the survey and forward rate data used in Chinn and Frankel (2019) (discussed in this post). Here are preliminary results regard forward rate bias, both pre- and post-crisis.
[Updated to include Corev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] Recently, in response to my posting a graph of the most recent nonfarm payroll data, Reader CoRev wrote:
Can you provide the raw data used?
This request came despite the fact that the graph states explicitly:
[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trend 4/16/2019] Reader JBH writes:
“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”
The structural, or cyclically adjusted, budget balance has been deteriorating. In accounting terms, what’re the drivers?
Today we learned that through March, the Federal budget deficit was 15% larger than the corresponding point in the last fiscal year — as expected given a not particularly stimulative tax cut (so much for tax cuts paying for themselves, as Stephen Moore claimed) and the ending of spending restraints. The dollar remains at elevated levels, as interest rates have risen. The trade deficit, excluding petroleum, continues to deteriorate. As I explained to my macro class today… it’s all textbook (notes).
If measured world uncertainty shocks cause decelerating economic growth, then Trump will be partly responsible for the global slowdown the IMF is forecasting.
February coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from slightly over a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the Q3 GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Enrique Martínez-García (Senior Reserach Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. He acknowledges the contributions of Valerie Grossman, Michael Morris, Amro Shohoud, and Mark A. Wynne in preparing these comments.