As implied by WSJ ed board, via Thune, e.g. Mebbe. Sure doesn’t look like it at first glance. On the other hand, through 2018, Trump’s trade policies and associated trade policy uncertainty haven’t helped much…
The New Fama Puzzle Persists
Comparing shipping costs and industrial production as measures of world economic activity
That’s the title of my latest contribution at Vox CEPR Policy Portal.
Of Sugar Highs, Uncertainty, and Recession
Growth is already slated to decelerate, but in the absence of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it might have decelerated even more; on the other hand in the absence of crazy high policy uncertainty, growth might have been faster…
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Guess the Expiration Price of July 2019 Soybean Futures
On July 12, 2019, the soybean futures contract (CBOT) for July 2019 expires (first delivery on 7/16). On July 12, 2018, the closing price was 885.75 (data from ino.com here). What’s your guess on what the expiration price will be?
Recession Watch, July 2019
With the release of nonfarm payroll employment (NFP) numbers today, we have a new set of readings on indicators emphasized by the NBER BCDC (used in dating the end of the 2001 recession), since my last post on recession indicators. While NFP continues to trend upwards, industrial production, personal income excluding current transfers, manufacturing and trade industry sales are all below recent peaks. Monthly GDP has risen to match the last peak in January 2019.
George Washington and Victory at IAD
Source: Terry Australis
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth in Context
Blockbuster (absolute level) growth number for nonfarm payroll employment. But does the percentage growth rate in NFP dispell the prospect of recession in the near future? I don’t think so.
Guest Contribution: “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probability – July 2019 Update”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Judy Shelton Confuses Me: On Interest Rates, Currency Manipulation
With Judy Shelton’s nomination to be a Fed governor, it behooves us to consider her views on the world. I will point out two salient (there are many) areas of confusion about her views: (1) interest rates and monetary policy easing, and (2) currency manipulation.