“Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”

Here at this conference today:

Friday, August 25, 2017
Chair: Susan M. Collins
Former Dean, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy

University of Michigan

8 a.m.
Opening Remarks

Janet L. Yellen | Speech
Chair
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

8:30 a.m.
Fostering Business Dynamism and Ensuring Competitive Markets

Authors: Chang-Tai Hsieh | Paper
Professor
University of Chicago

Pete Klenow | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Stanford University

Discussant: Gita Gopinath | Remarks
Professor
Harvard University

9:05 a.m.
General Discussion

9:55 a.m.
Income Inequality and the Distribution Aspects of International Trade

Author: Nina Pavcnik | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Dartmouth College

Discussant: David Dorn | Remarks
Professor
University of Zurich

10:30 a.m.
General Discussion

10:55 a.m.
Panel on the Changing Landscape of International Trade

Panelists: Ann E. Harrison | Remarks
Professor
University of Pennsylvania

Catherine L. Mann | Remarks
Chief Economist

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Peter K. Schott | Remarks
Professor
Yale University

John Van Reenen | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

11:55 a.m.
General Discussion

1 p.m.
Luncheon Address

Mario Draghi | Speech
President

European Central Bank

2 p.m.
Adjournment

Saturday, August 26, 2017
Chair: Randall S. Kroszner
Professor

University of Chicago

8 a.m.
Balancing Short-term Fiscal Stimulus with Longer-term Sustainability

Authors: Alan J. Auerbach | Paper
Professor

University of California-Berkeley

Yuriy Gorodnichenko| Paper
Professor
University of California-Berkeley

Discussant: Jason Furman | Remarks
Professor

Harvard University

8:35 a.m.
General Discussion

9 a.m.
Achieving Balanced Global Growth

Author: Menzie Chinn | Paper, Remarks
Professor

University of Wisconsin

Discussant:
Maurice Obstfeld |Remarks

Economic Counsellor
International Monetary Fund

10 a.m.
General Discussion

10:25 a.m.
Overview Panel

Panelists: Norman Chan | Remarks
Chief Executive
Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Timothy J. Kehoe | Remarks
Professor
University of Minnesota

Carmen M. Reinhart
Professor
Harvard University

11:25 a.m.
General Discussion

Growth Expectations Pre- and Post-Election

In response to my assertion growth expectations popped up post-election, and have subsequently receded, Reader Neil writes:

Did the consensus ever price in an economic boom in the US? Growth expectations in the US for 2017 did not shift, at least according to Blue Chip – essentially flat at 2.2%. …

I was intrigued by this comment, so I followed up. In particular, I focus on 2018, presumably when anticipated fiscal and/or other policies would kick in (the ten year-three month yield curve pertains to a year ahead):

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